Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich: UFC 277 Odds, Prediction
The third fight on the main card of Saturday’s UFC 277 event in Dallas, TX, features an intriguing fight from the heavyweight division. Heavyweight mainstay and No. 5 contender Derrick Lewis will go up against emerging star Sergei Pavlovich, currently ranked No. 11 in the division. After earning first round finishes in three of his first four career UFC fights, this matchup is likely a test to see if Pavlovich is a legit title contender.
Pavlovich is a -150 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Lewis is a +115 underdog.
Derrick Lewis UFC 277 Odds
Lewis has been a mainstay in the UFC since debuting in the promotion in 2014. With a 26-9 professional MMA record (and one no contest) Lewis has defeated some of the biggest names in the promotion, including Curtis Blaydes, Alexander Volkov and current heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou. He’s won seven Performance of the Night or Fight of the Night bonuses and he has fought for the heavyweight belt and interim belt once each, losing both fights.
The 37-year-old New Orleans native has 21 career wins by KO/TKO, four by decision and one by submission. Lewis’ last win was a first round knockout against Chris Daukaus last December. It was his 13th career UFC knockout, breaking the all-time record. He was last in action in February, falling to Tai Tuivasa via second round knockout thanks to a vicious elbow.
“The Black Beast” is probably the most powerful puncher across all divisions of the UFC. He is the definition of a fighter who only needs one shot to end things. Lewis averages 2.56 significant strikes landed per minute with 50 per cent accuracy. He absorbs 2.51 strikes with 41 per cent defence.
Lewis has a standard fight strategy that he rarely deviates from. He’ll come out hard with heavy flying kicks and hard swings, looking for an immediate knockout shot. He is at his most dangerous when he gains top position. If Lewis can’t get that top position, he’ll punish opponents with short combinations on his feet. Bottom line, defence is crucial against Lewis as he truly is a one-punch knockout threat. There’s a reason he has the UFC knockout record.
Sergei Pavlovich UFC 277 Odds
Pavlovich (15-1 MMA record) has only managed to fight four times since his UFC debut in 2018. The Russian dealt with various injury and visa issues that kept him from fighting in 2020 and 2021. Pavlovich dropped his UFC debut by first round TKO against Alistair Overeem, but he bounced back strong with three first round KO/TKO victories, two of which earned Performance of the Night bonuses.
The 30-year-old Pavlovich has 12 career wins by KO/TKO and three by decision. The former Fight Nights Global heavyweight champion last fought in May, earning a Performance of the Night bonus for his first round TKO victory over Shamil Abdurakhimov.
Pavlovich will have a five-inch reach advantage in this fight, which is beneficial because despite his strong background in Greco-Roman wrestling, he’s focused more on stand up fighting in the Octagon. He averages 6.08 significant strikes landed per minute with 50 per cent accuracy. He also averages 4.45 significant strikes absorbed per minute with 46 per cent defence.
Pavlovich will need to be patient against Lewis. One mistake could end his night instantly. With his reach advantage, he can afford to pick his shots carefully and strategically. If Pavlovich hangs back and focuses on kicks to the leg and heavy shots down the middle, Lewis will likely get impatient and make a mistake. This is a huge test for Pavlovich. Another impressive win instantly puts him in the title picture.
UFC 277 Prediction: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich
Pavlovich being matched up against Lewis says a lot about where the UFC sees the Russian going. Lewis is a fan favourite and remains a serious heavyweight threat. This is Pavlovich’s first real test and it’s a big one that could lead to a title shot. Pavlovich wins via second round KO/TKO.
