Dan Hooker vs. Claudio Puelles Prediction: UFC 281 Odds

Hooker is a -155 favourite on the MMA odds with Puelles +120.

Dan Hooker -175
Claudio Puelles +135

Dan Hooker UFC 281 Odds

The 32-year-old Hooker, from New Zealand, is ranked No. 12 in the lightweight division and is 21-12 in a career that dates to March 2009. Hooker previously was the King in the Ring middleweight kickboxing champion and WKBF X-Rules welterweight champion.

“The Hangman” enters having lost four of his past five fights, most recently to Arnold Allen in March by first-round TKO (punches and elbows) when Hooker dropped down to featherweight. Three of those four losses happened in Round 1. His lone win in that stretch was by unanimous decision over Nasrat Haqparast last September. Midway through 2020, Hooker was inside the Top 5 rankings of the lightweight division, was on a three-fight win streak and had a 7-1 record at 155 pounds.

The 6-foot Hooker’s fights average 9:46. He lands 4.91 significant strikes per minute with 47 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.81 with 51 per cent defence. Hooker’s takedown average is 0.89 per 15 minutes with 36 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 60 per cent.

Hooker has 10 wins by KO/TKO, seven by submission and four by decision, while the majority of his losses (six) are via the judges. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +140, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +200 and submission at +900. A draw is +5000.

Claudio Puelles UFC 281 Odds

Puelles, 26, is from Peru and is 12-2 in a career that dates to 2013. He isn’t ranked in the division but might enter with a victory Saturday. Puelles has earned Performance of the Night twice in the UFC, with a third-round submission of Felipe Silva in May 2018 and in his most recent fight, a first-round submission (kneebar) of legendary Clay Guida.

Since dropping his UFC debut in 2016 to Martin Bravo while trying to win the third season of “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America,” Puelles has won five in a row. That is tied for the fourth-longest active streak in the division behind Islam Makhachev (10), Beneil Dariush (eight) and Rafael Fiziev (six).

The “Prince of Peru” has three submission victories by kneebar in UFC competition, the most in company history. No other fighter has earned more than one win with the technique. The 5-foot-10 Puelles’ fights average 10:57 and he’s a southpaw. He lands 1.99 significant strikes per minute with 51 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.89 with 46 per cent defence. His takedown average is 2.74 per 15 minutes with 38 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 60 per cent.

Puelles has seven wins by submission, three by decision and two by KO/TKO. For Saturday, Puelles’ favoured method of victory by submission at +200 followed by decision at +450 and KO/TKO/DQ at +1000. Puelles will be at a three-inch reach disadvantage.

The over-under is 2.5 rounds, with the under a -155 favourite.