Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson: UFC Fight Night Odds, Prediction

Edgar Chaput
June 29, 2023

The UFC Apex will rocking once again on July 1 when the Fight Night card pits Kazakh Damir Ismagulov against American Grant Dawson in a lightweight tilt. Both contestants enter the night with tremendous records.

The MMA odds currently have this is a “pick’em” fight. Both Ismagulov and Dawson are pinned at -115, something rarely seen.

Grant Dawson -115
Damir Ismagulov -115

Damir Ismagulov UFC Fight Night Odds

What a past 12 months it’s been for the 32-year old Kazakhstan native. Holding the Russian classification of Master of Sports in Hand-to-Hand Combat, Ismagulov entered the octagon a year ago at UFC on ESPN 37 to fight with Guram Kutateladze. He emerged victorious thanks to a favourable split decision.

Flash forward six months to December’s UFC Fight Night 216 against Arman Tsarukyan, which didn’t go as well. His rival had the better of him for large stretches of the three-round battle and even mistakenly knock him in the groin at one point. The outcome was never in doubt, with the judges handing out a unanimous decision in Tsarukyan’s favour. Then comes the odd bit when Ismagulov announced through social media on New Year’s Day that he retired for health concerns. Shortly thereafter on January 29, he shares that his UFC contract demands a final fight, and so here we are. Well okay then.

The Kazakh’s win-loss tally is a sparkling 24-2, so he knows a thing or two about winning. Speaking of which, submissions have been the method of victory only four per cent of the time. He much prefers KO and TKO, which translate to success 52 per cent of the time, the balancing 43 coming via the judges. His average fight duration is exactly 15 minutes, meaning he can hang around in the octagon for a while. The strikes per minute average is a solid 3.78, but the low 2.51 he eats is just as important. He can thank his 62 per cent defence efficiency for that. While he doesn’t take down opponents much (1.17 every 15 minutes) his defence is an impressive 75 per cent.

Grant Dawson UFC Fight Night Odds

Hailing from Cambria, Wisconsin in the United States, the 29-year old – nicknamed KGD – has a win-loss record nearly as good as his opponents. At 19-1-1, the only knock against him is that he hasn’t as many fights under his belt.

In April of last year at UFC on ESPN 35 he faced off against Jared Gordon. In fact he was replacing Gordon’s previously scheduled opponent, Rafael Alves. Wouldn’t you know it, Dawson won thanks to a read-naked choke submission. His next fight had more intrigue. He yet again replacing someone, this time Drakkar Klose, to tango with Mark Madsen at UFC Fight Night 214 in November. At the weigh-ins Dawson came in one and a half pounds overweight. Rather than cancelling or re-scheduling, UFC fined Dawson for 30 per cent out of his purse, which went to his opposite number in the fight. Dawson still earned win, once more through a rear-naked choke.

While his and Ismagulov’s leg reaches are an identical 40 inches, the American has a slight disadvantage in arm reach (72 inches to 74). In stark contrast to the Kazakh, Dawson earns a whopping 68 per cent of his victories by submitting opponents. 21 per cent come from KO and TKO, with the remaining 11 thanks to the judges. Although he lands fewer significant strikes every 60 seconds (3.12), he suffers fewer too (2.41). Given what we’ve mentioned, it’s no surprise that he has a higher takedown average, performing 3.8 every 15 minutes. His defence against that method is much weaker though, at only 40 per cent.