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Edgar Chaput
Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac Prediction, UFC Fight Night Odds
Just like with an earlier fight involving Manon Fiorot, the local UFC fans will get to cheer one of their own in the main event. La Roche-sur-Yon native Ciryl Gane will face Moldavan Serghei Spivac in a heavyweight battle.
The MMA odds view Ciryl Gane as the favourite on Saturday. He sits perched at -195 to Spivac’s +150.
Ciryl Gane UFC Fight Night Odds Analysis
Gane enters the octagon this Saturday at the Accor Arena with a mixed recent history. The one nickname “Bon Gamin” (Nice Kid) had never lost a professional fight until January 2022. His 11-2 record is, on the one hand, impressive. On the other hand, his two defeats were each an opportunity to capture the heavyweight crown.
In January of last year, the first chance came against Francis Ngannou at UFC 270. Gane performed admirably in the first two rounds, but things fell apart in the three remaining rounds once his opponent shifted gears and applied wrestling techniques. After that came a non-championship tilt with Tai Tuivasa at UFC Fight Night 209 in September 2022. The Frenchman handled his business with a KO win and Fight of the Night honours. The subsequent fight was his second opportunity at heavyweight glory. In March of this year, only Jon Jones stood in his way, but Jones got the better of him with a guillotine choke.
Gane specializes in Muay Thai, which contrasts with many Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in UFC. The 247.50-pound fighter has a slight edge in arm reach (81 inches to 78) but a deficit in leg reach (49 inches to 44). His roads to victory are fairly balanced, with 45 per cent thanks to good old-fashioned KO and TKO, 27 per cent via submissions, and another 27 via favourable decisions. Of note, his average fight time is a lot longer (14:43 to 8:01). His ratio of significant strikes landed and suffered per minute is great too. He delivers 5.08 and only takes 2.25 (his defence is a strong 62 per cent). Grappling is not much of a factor, with only 0.61 attempts every 15 minutes.
Serghei Spivac UFC Fight Night Odds Analysis
While there is surely a lot of hype surrounding Cyril Gane, his opponent this Saturday is no slouch. Serghei Spivac, or “Polar Bear,” comes in with a 16-3 overall record. He’s also one of the younger fights on these main cards at only 28 years old.
He’s done nothing but add to his win tally since early 2022, In March of that year, he came face-to-face with Greg Hardy at UFC 272 and took care of business with a TKO in the very first round. Later in August came a test against Augusto Sakai at UFC on ESPN 40, which he also claimed thanks to a TKO, this time in the sophomore round. Most recently was a bout against Derrick Lewis for UFC Fight Night 218 in February. This contest also concluded in Spivac’s favour thanks to an arm-triangle choke in the opening round. His effort was impressive enough to earn the Performance of the Night award.
Coming in at 255.5 pounds, most of Spivac’s victories come either from KO and TKO or submissions. The former covers 47 per cent of his wins and the latter 40 per cent. Only 13 per cent of his successes are dependent on the judges. The higher volume of wins via submission explains the impressive number of takedown attempts every 15 minutes (5.06), to say nothing of his 65 per cent accuracy. Not many fighters can claim such numbers. His defence against grappling is also excellent at 70 per cent. This translates to fewer significant strikes per minute (3.79), although he doesn’t suffer many either (2.84).
