Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France: UFC 277 Odds, Prediction

The first title fight at UFC 277 from Dallas on Saturday night is from the flyweight division and a rematch as Brandon Moreno faces Kai Kara-France. Moreno is a -200 favourite to win on the MMA odds, with Kara-France at +150.

Brandon Moreno -240
Kai Kara France +175

Brandon Moreno UFC 277 Odds

Deiveson Figueiredo is the flyweight champion and was set to fight Moreno a fourth time but is dealing with an injured thumb. Plus, Figueiredo may not fight at flyweight again though he hasn’t formally made that announcement.

Thus, the interim flyweight belt is up for grabs here. Moreno (19-6-2) fought Figueiredo to a majority draw in their first meeting at UFC 256. In the first rematch, Moreno won by third-round submission at UFC 263. Finally, their trilogy fight was in January and Figueiredo won by unanimous decision. Their bouts at UFC 256 and UFC 270 were chosen as Fight of the Night, and Moreno won Performance of the Night at UFC 263.

The 35-year-old Moreno was the first Mexican-born fighter to win a UFC championship and also was once Legacy Fighting Alliance flyweight champion. Eleven of his 19 wins are by submission with five by decision and three by KO/TKO. All six losses are via the judges.

Fights for the 5-foot-7 Moreno last an average of 14:55. He lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute with 39 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.31 strikes per minute with 57 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.84 per 15 minutes with 47 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 69 per cent.

The over-under for Saturday’s fight is 4.5 round and that it does the distance is a -165 favourite. Moreno will have a one-inch reach advantage.

Kai Kara-France UFC 277 Odds

The 29-year-old Kara-France is from New Zealand and 24-9 in a career that dates to 2010. He is ranked as the No. 2 lightweight contender and eyes payback for a unanimous decision loss to Moreno at UFC 245.

“Don’t Blink” is 4-1 since and comes off a unanimous decision win over Askar Askarov in March. Askarov had been 14-0 entering. Moreno says his opponent looks much more confident now.

“We can talk different stuff with technique and that stuff, but the thing he’s improved most is his confidence,” Moreno said. “He lost to me, he won against Tyson Nam and then he lost against Brandon Royval. But after that, he looked different against Rogerio Bontorin and Cody Garbrandt. The last one against Askarov, he was impressive. He looked more brave and more confident. More confidence in the Octagon is very important.”

Fights for the 5-foot-4 Kara-France (he’s definitely a smaller guy) last an average of 11:34. He lands 4.84 significant strikes per minute with 40 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.51 per minute with 65 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.43 per 15 minutes with 21 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence 86 per cent.

“I know I’m the best in the world and now I’ve got to go show the rest of the world,” Kara-France said recently. “I just remind myself why I’m doing this – representing my people, doing it for my family, doing it for my team at City Kickboxing. They have prepared me for this. … It brings me back to when I was in high school, getting bullied for my height. I guess getting overlooked, underestimated. But man, this kid has a lot of fight in him. And that’s what Moreno will be seeing. It’s a dog fight and I’m gonna just make it that… I don’t care.”