Brandon Moreno vs Alexandre Pantoja : UFC 290 Odds, Prediction

Edgar Chaput
July 6, 2023

The Flyweight championship belt is on the line this Saturday at UFC 290 when Alexandre Pantoja challenges current wearer Brandon Moreno. These two specialize in bouts that earn fight and performance of the night honours, so they should put on a good show.

The MMA odds don’t see this one as being easy to predict. The champion Moreno is favoured, but only at -210 Pantoja is not all far behind at +160.

Brandon Moreno -165
Alexandre Pantoja +130

Brandon Moreno UFC 290

Native of Tijuana, Mexico, who goes by the scary and hilarious nickname “The Assassin Baby”, Brandon Moreno’s trials and tribulations to earn and keep the Flyweight championship belt are a story unto themselves. His greatest rival is Deiveson Figueiredo, against whom he has fought no fewer than four times. No two combatants have tussled so many times in the sports history.

After a draw and a win by Moreno, the third of those fights saw him lose the title to his chief rival. That was UFC 270 in January 2022. It came down to a unanimous decision by the judges and earned the event Fight of the Night honours. Before squaring off against his foe once more, Moreno was pitted against Kai Kara-France at UFC 277 in July 2022, a battle he won via TKO in the third round and, for that matter, was another Fight of the Night award winner. Finally, UFC 283 this past January saw “The Assassin Baby” and Figueiredo complete their quartet of fights, which granted Moreno the belt once more thanks to a win via TKO.

He has a slight height advantage over his opposite number this week (five feet and seven inches to fight feet five), resulting in a slightly superior reach (70 inches to 67). Despite some of his last fights decided by TKO, only 24 per cent of his wins are earned that way. The majority, 52 per cent, are arrived at via submissions. His stamina is very good too, with an average fight time of 14:53. The significant strikes he delivers and takes are fairly even (3.55 landed to 3.19 suffered every 60 seconds).

Alexandre Pantoja UFC 290

Hailing from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Alexandre Pantoja – “The Cannibal” – arrives in the octagon with a sparkling 25-5 record. His presence in the ring has been rather infrequent as of late though. Since August 2021, he has partaken in only two bouts. Before last was a tussle with Brandon Royval at UFC on ESPN 29, which he won courtesy of a rear-naked choke in the second round.

After that, nearly a year later in July 2022, was a tilt with Alex Perez at UFC 277. A neck crank submission granted him victory in the initial round. This was deserving of Performance of the Night honours.

What “The Cannibal” lacks in reach he makes up for in the speed of his attacks. On average he delivers 4.25 major strikes per minute while only suffering 3.38. Granted he takes in a bit more than this week’s opponent, but he’s much more successful at lashing out. His method of victory is pretty evenly dispersed. Submissions grant him most of his wins, but not the majority per se (40 per cent). KO/TKO and judges, decisions are nearly even at 32 and 28 per cent, respectively. Given his propensity to hit more, that might explain his shorter average fight duration at 10:02.