Arman Tsarukyan vs Joaquim Silva Prediction: UFC Fight Night Odds

Edgar Chaput
June 15, 2023

“Akhalkalakets” faces off against “Netto BJJ” to put their money where their mouths are this Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Our MMA odds have Arman Tsarukyan as a very heavy favourite, placed at -1120 to Joaquim Silva’s +665. It seems the experts believe this one isn’t even close.

Arman Tsarukyan -1345
Joaquim Silva +745

Arman Tsarukyan UFC Fight Night

The 26-year-old from Akhalkalaki, Georgia fights out of Khabarovsk, Russia, where he perfects his lightweight skills. He fought twice in 2022 and this will be his first time in the octagon in 2023.

The first bout was mired in some controversy. He was set against Mateusz Gamrot in June at UFC on ESPN 38. It concluded in a unanimous decision against Tsarukyan, yet 15 of 22 MMA media outlets thought he was the superior fighter that night. Flash forward to last December and UFC Fight Night 216 when he went against Damir Ismagulov and this time got the judges on his side. There was a bout scheduled in April with Renato Moicano but both had to pull out.

He and Silva have almost the same height, but Tsarukyan’s edge lies in his reach, with is 72.5 inches to his rival’s 69. He even has a half-inch advantage in leg reach. The Georgian doesn’t seem to have a preferred method of victory. 37 per cent of his successes come via KO/TKO and the same number via decision. 26 per cent are through submissions. His fight time is a lot longer however – 13:38 to 9:04. While he doesn’t strike an incredible amount of major hits per minute (3.56) he’s remarkably hard to hit, suffering only 1.93. Lastly, make no mistake about it: he’s a grappler, going for 3.3 takedowns every 15 minutes.

Joaquim Silva UFC Fight Night

34 years old and hailing from Anapolis in Brazil, Joaquim Silva hasn’t fought in as many contests as his opposite number (19-3 record) but has gained respect with his own solid 12-4 tally. He currently holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

The road to this weekend’s event has been a bit slow and plodding. He’s only been engaged in two bouts since June two years ago. That was UFC on ESPN 25 when he was knocked out in the first round – 37 seconds in – by Rick Glenn. Silva wouldn’t fight again until October 2022, well over a year later, when UFC pitted him against Jesse Ronson at UFC Fight Night 211. He fared much better this time, performing a flying knee and some good old “ground and pound” to win the match and Performance of the Night honours.

In case the reader hadn’t guessed it Silva’s style leads to most victories via KO and TKO, 58 per cent them in fact. Where he may have an edge is therefore with significant strikes, as he lands a bit more than Tsarukyan every 60 seconds – 4.08 to 3.56. On the flip, as is so often the case, the more aggressive the fighter, the more vulnerable they are on the defence. There’s no point beating around the bush: taking 4.58 significant strikes per minute is a lot more dangerous than only 1.93. His takedown defence is a decent 50%, and it’ll to be at least decent given how often his opponent attempts them.