Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana Prediction: UFC 289 Odds

Payton Matthews
June 7, 2023

The UFC returns to Rogers Arena in Vancouver for the first time since September 2019 on Saturday. Nunes is -375 on the MMA odds and Aldana +260.

Amanda Nunes -380
Irene Aldana +260

Amanda Nunes UFC 289 Odds

No question that the 35-year-old Nunes, from Brazil, is on the very short list of greatest female MMA fighters in history. She is ranked as the No. 1 woman in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings, was the first woman to become a two-division UFC champion (featherweight and bantamweight), and the first and only fighter to defend two UFC titles while holding both.

“Lioness” is 22-5 in a pro career dating to 2008 and actually lost her debut. Nunes won her first UFC bantamweight crown with a first-round submission of Miesha Tate at UFC 200 seven years ago. Nunes picked up the featherweight title with a first-round submission (rear-naked choke) of Megan Anderson in March 2021 but then lost the bantamweight crown in a second-round massive upset via submission (rear-naked choke) to Julianna Pena in December 2021.

The two had a rematch last July, and Nunes regained the belt via unanimous decision win. She dropped Pena multiple times, and the judges’ scoring was 50-45, 50-44 and 50-43. Nunes came out and added a left-handed stance to her normal right-handed stance. She believes that confused Pena.

“I could have finished her, but I wanted to go five rounds with her tonight to prove I was better than her,” said Nunes. “I could have gone six, seven rounds.”

The 5-foot-8 Nunes has a reach of 69 inches and her fights average 9:58. She lands 4.40 significant strikes per minute with 51 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.75 with 55 per cent defence. Her takedown average is 2.61 per 15 minutes with 56 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 82 per cent.

Nunes has 13 wins by KO/TKO, five by decision and four by submission, with two losses each by KO/TKO and submission and one by decision. Nunes’ 10 victories in UFC title fights are fifth-most in company history behind Jon Jones (15), Canadian Georges St-Pierre (13), Demetrious Johnson (12) and Anderson Silva (11).

Nunes has defeated seven fighters who once held an undisputed UFC belt, the most of any active fighter in the organization. Her seven first-round finishes in UFC/Strikeforce women’s bantamweight competition are second-most in combined divisional history behind Ronda Rousey (Nunes won the lone matchup between them).

For Saturday, Nunes’ favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +155, followed by decision at +275 and submission at +400. A draw is +6600.

Irene Aldana UFC 289 Odds

The 35-year-old Aldana, from Mexico, is 14-6, in a pro career dating to 2012 and ranked No. 5 in the UFC bantamweight division. This was to be a trilogy fight for Amanda Nunes against Julianna Pena, but Pena was pulled from the bout early in May after suffering broken ribs in training and replaced by Aldana in her first-ever UFC title fight.

“Honestly, this is the original opponent right there,” Nunes said of Aldana. “Now we are here with the real opponent. I’m very happy about it. Less heavy, as well, and I’m excited. After what I did with Julianna in our last fight, there’s no question. … Aldana is very, very tough. She is powerful and has heavy hands. So, she’s technical, and this is going to be so fun.”

Aldana did get one bantamweight title shot in Invicta FC but lost to Tonya Evinger. Aldana comes off a third-round KO (upkick to the body) win over Macy Chiasson last September. That earned Aldana a Performance of the Night bonus. She is one of only three fighters in UFC history to earn a knockout stemming from an upkick from bottom position and the first female.

The 5-foot-9 Aldana has a reach of 68 inches and her fights average 13:39. She lands 5.39 significant strikes per minute (there are your heavy hands) with 39 per cent accuracy and absorbs 5.71 (not good) with 60 per cent defence. Aldana has landed 773 significant strikes in UFC women’s bantamweight competition, the second-most in divisional history behind Raquel Pennington (922). Aldana’s takedown average is 0.20 per 15 minutes with 81 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence 81 per cent.

Eight or Aldana’s wins are by KO/TKO, three by submission and three by decision. She has four losses by decision and two by KO/TKO. For Saturday, her favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +550, followed by decision (+750) and submission (+800). That the bout goes the full five rounds is +195 with no at -250.