Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley: UFC 292 Odds, Prediction
Sterling is a -235 favourite to win on the MMA odds, with O’Malley at +175.
Aljamain Sterling UFC 292 Odds
The bantamweight champion Sterling, age 34 and from New York, is 23-3 in his excellent career and ranked as the No. 6 pound-for-pound male fighter in the organization. He was an All-American wrestler at the Division III NCAA level and a former Cage Fury Fighting Championship bantamweight king.
Early in his UFC career, Sterling had a stretch where he lost three of five fights, but he has since won nine in a row against some of the biggest names in the sport. Sterling claimed the bantamweight title in his first shot, a fourth-round win over Petr Yan at UFC 259 thanks to Yan being disqualified for an illegal knee. The rematch about a year later went to Sterling via split decision.
“Funk Master” defended the belt again with a third-round TKO (punches) win over TJ Dillashaw and then this past May beat former two-division champion Henry Cejudo by split decision. That was very controversial as many though Cejudo won and it really came down to Round 5. Two of the three judges had Cejudo winning that but the third had Sterling. That is screaming for a rematch.
Sterling’s three consecutive UFC title defences are second-most among current champions behind featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski’s five. Sterling’s three straight bantamweight title defences are most by any champion in divisional history, and his four wins in bantamweight title fights are tied with Dominick Cruz and Renan Barao for second-most in divisional history behind Dillashaw’s five.
The 5-foot-7 Sterling has a reach of 71 inches, and his fights average 13:36. He lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute with 52 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.54 with 62 per cent defence. His takedown average is 2.02 per 15 minutes with 24 percent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 45 percent.
Sterling has 11 wins by decision, eight by submission, three by KO/TKO and that one DQ. His seven decision victories in UFC bantamweight competition are tied for second-most in divisional history behind Raphael Assuncao (nine). Sterling has 32 takedowns as a UFC bantamweight, fourth on the promotion’s all-time list at 135 pounds. Two of his three losses are via decision and the other by KO/TKO.
For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by submission at +185, followed by decision at +235 and KO/TKO/DQ at +470. A draw is +5200.
Sean O’Malley UFC 292 Odds
The 28-year-old O’Malley was born in Montana and now fights out of the Phoenix area. He is 16-1 with one no contest in a career dating to 2015 and ranked No. 2 in the bantamweight division. His big break came with a spectacular spinning-wheel kick knockout of David Nuzzo in the Legacy Fighting Alliance as
that got O’Malley a spot Dana White’s Contender Series 2. O’Malley beat Alfred Khashakyan by first-round KO (punch) and that earned a UFC contract.
That lone defeat came against Marlon “Chito” Vera via first-round TKO (elbows and punches) at UFC 252. “Sugar” comes off a split-decision win over Petr Yan last October, and Yan gave Sterling fits in their two fights, although the champ won both. We should note that nearly everyone on hand thought Yan beat O’Malley.
Naturally, O’Malley thinks he will win Saturday and already has eyes for his next opponent in December: A rematch with Vera as opposed to taking on No. 1 contender Merab Dvalishvili: “The rematch needs to happen,” O’Malley said. “Everyone, even ‘Chito’ himself truly knows that wasn’t a win.”
The 5-foot-11 O’Malley has a reach of 72 inches, and his fights average 9:01. He lands a crazy 7.43 significant strikes per minute (highest in divisional history) with 60 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.54 with 62 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.45 per 15 minutes with 42 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 60 per cent.
O’Malley has 11 wins by KO/TKO, four by decision and one by submission. His five knockout victories in UFC bantamweight competition are tied for fourth-most in divisional history behind TJ Dillashaw (seven), Vera (six) and Rob Font (six). O’Malley has been awarded “Performance of the Night” on four occasions and “Fight of the Night” three times.
For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +270, followed by decision at +575 and submission at +2500. The over-under for rounds is 4.5, with the under the -205 favourite. That it goes the distance is +160 with no at -215.
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O’Malley Prediction
O’Malley is a bigger guy and that could be the difference. Him at +170 to win, plus -215 inside distance in a parlay is an excellent +300 value or so.