Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg Prediction: UFC 301 Betting Odds
Pantoja is a -190 favourite on the MMA odds with Erceg at +165 on the MMA odds. It should start around midnight ET.
Bet on Pantoja vs. Erceg at UFC 301
UFC 301 Odds: Alexandre Pantoja
The 34-year-old Pantoja, from Rio de Janeiro, is 27-5 in a professional MMA career dating to 2007 and is the UFC flyweight champion – one of only five undisputed UFC flyweight champions in history. On the organization’s pound-for-pound rankings, he’s No. 10. Pantoja is also a former Resurrection Fighting Alliance flyweight champion.
“The Cannibal” carries a five-fight winning streak into Saturday. He won the UFC flyweight belt with a split decision victory Brandon Moreno in July 2023 as around a +160 underdog and successfully defended it last December, beating Brandon Royval by unanimous decision. Most reports from that fight had Pantoja looking rather tired about midway through the five-rounder, but he dominated Royval on the ground en route to scores of 50-45, 50-45 and 49-46.
“The fight was maybe boring. I don’t like to do that [kind of fight],” said Pantoja, who had nearly 16 minutes of top control. “I needed to keep this belt for my family and Brazil. Brazil needs some [role models] right now. It’s a very hard place right now.”
It was Pantoja’s his second victory over Royval as they two met as rising contenders in August 2021, with Pantoja winning by submission. After the last fight, Pantoja made it clear he wanted his next title defence to be in his native Brazil as you can tell by his quote. Since 2011, Brazilians facing non-Brazilian opponents in UFC events held in Brazil have a record of 225-127, excluding draws and no contests.
The 5-foot-5 Pantoja has a reach of 67 inches and his bouts average 12:10. He lands 4.32 significant strikes per minute with 49 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.90 with 50 per cent defence. His takedown average is 2.20 with 48 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 67 per cent.
Overall, Pantoja has 10 wins by submission, eight by KO/TKO and nine by decision. His 11 victories in UFC flyweight competition are third-most in divisional history behind Demetrious Johnson (13) and Joseph Benavidez (13). Pantoja’s five-fight winning streak is the second-longest active streak in the division behind Muhammad Mokaev (six). Pantoja’s six stoppage victories are tied for third-most in divisional history. And his four submission victories are tied for second-most in divisional history.
For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by submission at +265, followed by decision at +285 and KO/TKO/DQ at +425. A draw is +5000. That the fight goes to a split decision is +450 with no -700.
UFC 301 Odds: Steve Erceg
The 28-year-old Erceg, an Aussie, is 12-1 in his career and ranked No. 10 in the division. We generally don’t see fighters rank that low get a title shot and in fact Erceg has a shot to become the lowest-ranked fighter to win a title since the UFC introduced the rankings system in 2013. Erceg is also the lowest-ranked fighter to challenge for a UFC title since Dan Henderson faced Michael Bisping for the middleweight championship in 2016. Many of the other Top 10 flyweights were unavailable for one reason or another.
“I know I wasn’t at the top of everyone’s mind when it came to a title shot,” Ergec said this week at UFC 301 media day. “But just the way the division was with Pantoja already beating all the challengers, people are injured and the only other guy up for the shot was (Muhammad) Mokaev, I was on the same card as him, and I had a more exciting fight than him, (so) UFC decided to give me the shot. … I’m here to be the best guy in the world, so whether I’m an underdog or favorite, it doesn’t matter to me. I’m going in there to fight another dude in a cage, and whoever is best is going to come out on top.”
Erceg’s lone career loss was his second professional bout in the Hex Fight Series in September 2017 vs. Sean Gauci. Erceg, a former Eternal MMA flyweight champion, has only been in the UFC since 2023 and is 3-0 to extend his overall winning streak to 11.
“Astro Boy” was last in the Octagon in March and took out Matt Schnell by second-round KO thanks to a nasty left hook. That earned Erceg the Performance of the Night award. The 5-foot-8 Erceg has a reach of 68 inches and his bouts average 11:49. He lands 4.57 significant strikes per minute with 48 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.64 with 55 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.69 per 15 minutes with 30 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 77 per cent.
Erceg can become the second Australian-born champion in UFC history after Alexander Volkanovski. Erceg has six wins by submission, four by decision and two by KO/TKO. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +250, followed by decision at +550 and submission +1200.
The over-under for total rounds is 3.5, with the over a -155 favorite. That it goes the full five is +125 with no at -155.
UFC 301 Pantoja vs. Erceg Prediction
Erceg in an upset inside distance