Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya: UFC 287 Odds, Prediction

Edgar Chaput
April 4, 2023

Miami-Dade Arena in Florida is the place for Round 2 between these incredibly talented fighters. As fans know, they both tussled at UFC 281 last autumn in a five-round bout. Pereira edged out a victory in the final round, thus earning the Middleweight belt.

As of this writing, the once champ, now challenger Israel Adesanya is marked as a -140 favourite on the MMA odds. Alex Pereira sits at +105.

Israel Adesanya -135
Alex Pereira +105

Alex Pereira UFC 287

Nicknamed “Poatan” (also, “Hands of Stone”), the Sao Paulo native comes into this contest wearing the illustrious Middleweight champion’s belt, which he earned by defeating the very rival he’ll face on Saturday night.

In fact, Pereira’s career has been remarkably good since arriving in the UFC in September of 2021. He is a perfect 4-0 thus far and is one of the quickest fighters to earn a title belt. Not many get a crack at such an opportunity with only three fights to their name. The first came a year prior at UFC 268 versus Andrea Michailidis, whom he vanquished via TKO in the second round. Then Bruno Silva and Sean Strickland both fell at UFC Fight Night 203 and UFC 276 respectively.

Of course, the big talking point is his victory over Adesanya at UFC 281. It was a stupendous battle, with the champion at the time looking like the clear victor of rounds one and three. Round two definitely went to Pereira, and then things got interesting in round four. The Brazilian definitely looked a little worse for wear, but survived the five minutes as best he could. The ultimate round would see a shocking win for Pereira, who beat the living daylights out of Adesanya against the cage with a couple of minutes left on the clock.

“Hands of Stone” is big on significant strikes, landing 5.23 per minute and only absorbing 3.63, which isn’t bad considering that attacking can leave one’s defences vulnerable. Speaking of defence, his is 53 per cent. With so much hitting, it’s no wonder that 86 per cent of his fights are solved via KO or TKO. He likes to handle business more expediently than Adesanya as well, with his tilts lasting on average 11:14 to his rival’s 18:26. Neither is much of a grappler.

Israel Adesanya UFC 287

The Nigerian-born New Zealander, who popularly goes by the name “The Last Stylebender”, is looking forward to regaining his Middleweight belt. A stark reality stares him in the face, however. In three attempts in all competitions, Adesanya has only tasted defeat against Pereira. While not widely talked about, they fought twice in kickboxing matches before their epic showdown at UFC 281, with the Brazilian emerging as the winner both times.

Prior to his shock defeat to Pereira, Adesanya had been on a good run – that’s typically the case when one successfully defends titles for a while. The belt itself was earned at UFC 263 in June 2021 when he came face-to-face with Marvin Vettori. A unanimous decision by the judges in the New Zealander’s favour meant a new champ was in town. He defended the title at UFC 271 in February 2022 against Robert Whittaker – another unanimous decision – and then again at UFC 276 versus Jared Cannonier.

Almost everything about the fighters’ stature and ability is comparable. Both measure 6’4”. Pereira weighs 184.6 pounds to Adesanya’s 185.00. The Nigerian native has a one-inch advantage in reach (80 to 79) and a half-inch advantage for the legs (44.5 to 44). He doesn’t connect as many significant strikes per 60 seconds (3.93 to 5.23) but he absorbs a lot less (2.8 to 3.63). He is a little bit more dependent on the judges for his wins, with 32 per cent requiring that method of victory to Pereira’s 14.