New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: Odds, Prediction
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Kevin Tompkins
Friday’s daytime opener of the MLB slate pits the New York Yankees (61-48) and the Chicago Cubs (62-47) in the opener of a three-game weekend series. In what was a very competitive series, the Yankees won the first two games on the south side of Chicago against the White Sox, but dropped the next two in one-run, extra-innings losses.
Meanwhile, the Cubs have won their last two series against the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates to further separate themselves from the rest of the NL Central. The Cubs are still 5.5 games behind the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers, but the Cubs are ahead of the pack in the NL Wild Card race, sitting five games clear of the next-best NL teams – the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies.
Before Friday afternoon’s first pitch at 2:20 p.m. ET, let’s go over the betting angles, review both teams and then make a prediction for this game.
Chicago is a -160 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total pegged at 9.0.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
The Cubs have been hitting the cover off the ball, boasting a .280 batting average while scoring 6.0 runs per game and limiting opponents to just a 3.02 ERA in the team’s last 10 games. While the Yankees have been a dominant pitching team all season, they’ve found themselves reeling in the hitting department, which has been the theme over the last month or two. The Yankees are hitting just .211 as a team over the last 10 games and have scored just 3.7 runs per game.
New York Yankees
The Yankees need to gain some stability at the plate. Ben Rice (.931 OPS, 31 HR) can’t do everything, although he’s certainly trying. With Cody Bellinger hitting the injured list to join Aaron Judge, the Yankees are barely getting replacement-level hitting outside of Rice. Perhaps they add a catcher or middle infielder at the deadline?
The Yankees can match any team in baseball with their starting pitching, and for the most part, they’ve lived up to their top billing. Cam Schlittler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball and is the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young for a reason. Getting Max Fried back and adding him to Gerrit Cole and potentially Carlos Rodon is a pitching luxury few teams have. It’s the bridge to closer David Bednar that has been bumpy and could be the thing that does the Yankees in if not shored up.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs, with all the productive bats they have ranging from Seiya Suzuki (.836 OPS) to Michael Busch (.751 OPS) and Ian Happ (.751 OPS), are still living and dying by the sword (bat) of Pete Crow-Armstrong. Why wouldn’t they? Crow-Armstrong has been one of the best in baseball this season with his .924 OPS and .285/.382/.541 triple slash, plus 26 stolen bases to boot. He’s giving Shohei Ohtani a run for his money in NL MVP odds.
The Cubs are in the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes, especially given ample pitching injuries and designating Jameson Taillon for assignment. They’ve gotten by with Shota Imanaga and Colin Rea in their rotation for most of the season, plus Matthew Boyd and Javier Assad, but having that locked-in top pitcher for a playoff run could be what galvanizes this team.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Yankees vs. Cubs?
Friday afternoon’s matchup between the Yankees and the Cubs has the visiting Yankees trotting out Will Warren to toe the rubber. Warren has been solid this season, but has been the clear weak link of the Yankees’ staff. In fact, he came out in relief last Wednesday against the Pirates, but then got shelled by the Phillies for six earned runs in just three innings. Warren is likely the one bumped from the rotation when Carlos Rodon returns.
The Cubs counter Warren with lefty Imanaga, who has been exceptional in the month of July. Imanaga sports a 1.19 ERA and has given up zero earned runs in his last two starts, totalling 13 innings.
For this game, it’s hard not to bet on the Cubs with Imanaga on the run he’s on, combined with the Yankees’ run-scoring woes. We’ll take Imanaga and the North Siders today.
Best Bet: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+139)
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