New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
The Yanks are -150 favourites on the MLB odds for the opener with a total of 8.5.
Betting Analysis
Note that New York ace lefty Max Fried, among the AL Cy Young favourites at +1000, is scheduled to pitch Tuesday on Canada Day. The Yankees have the clear-cut AL MVP favourite in Aaron Judge, who is -900 to join some very exclusive company and win his third such award career and second in a row. The only threat currently is Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh (+475), who leads the majors in homers and RBIs.
But Judge is hot on Raleigh’s heels in both and leads MLB in batting average, so an AL Triple Crown is possible. We haven’t seen one of those from a hitter since (now-retired) Miguel Cabrera in 2012. Cabrera will be eligible for the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2029, and Judge will join him in Cooperstown five years after he retires.
This marks the second series of the season between Toronto and New York, which won two of three at Yankee Stadium in late April. Judge went 4-for-12 in the series with a solo homer and three strikeouts. Shortstop Anthony Volpe was 5-for-10 with two doubles, a homer and three runs scored. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk and Addison Barger each had two dingers for Toronto.
The Blue Jays were 4-3 at Rogers Centre last year vs. the Yankees.
New York Yankees
New York enters the week with a 1.5-game lead atop the AL East over second-place Tampa Bay and three games up on third-place Toronto. In Sunday’s 12-5 home win over the Athletics, Aaron Judge became the second player in the majors to 30 homers on the season with a pair of two-run home runs. The Yankees’ 12-run outburst was their highest since 13 on May 24. The offence had been slumping of late.
Left-hander Carlos Rodon (9-5, 2.92 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) is on the mound tonight. He comes off six shutout innings but a no-decision in Cincinnati, and Rodon has been better on the road with a 2.57 ERA. The 32-year-old hasn’t faced the Jays this year and has made seven career starts against them, going 2-2 with a 5.02 ERA.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hammers Rodon, going 8-for-12 with two doubles and a homer. George Springer has two home runs and a double off him in 22 at bats. New York is 22-18 on the road and the under is 7-0 in its past seven away.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto finished a tough trip through Cleveland and Boston an impressive 4-2 with Sunday’s 5-3 victory against the Red Sox. Addison Barger and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homered on consecutive pitches in the first inning. Jeff Hoffman struck out three batters in the ninth for his 18th save. He should still be available tonight if needed.
Ahead of Sunday, the Jays placed fellow reliever Paxton Schultz on the injured list with finger inflammation and called up Justin Bruihl from Triple-A Buffalo to replace him. He didn’t get into Sunday’s game.
Future Hall of Fame righty Max Scherzer (0-0, 5.63 ERA) makes his third career start in a Toronto uniform and looks for his first decision tonight. The 40-year-old returned from a long stint on the injured list last Wednesday and allowed three runs over five in a no-decision in Cleveland. Good velocity and stretched to 83 pitches.
The three-time Cy Young Award winner (not that guy any longer) has made 12 career starts vs. the Yankees and is 4-5 with a 4.25 ERA and 79 strikeouts in 72.0 innings. Aaron Judge is 4-for-14 off him with a homer. Giancarlo Stanton is 7-for-25 with four homers and 12 strikeouts.
The Jays are 25-16 at home. The over is 6-0 in the team’s past six at home vs. the Yankees.
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