After a disastrous nine-game road trip, the Toronto Blue Jays are back home at Rogers Centre on Friday night to open a three-game set against the Detroit Tigers.  There’s very little margin for error now as the Jays sit 10.5 games back of Tampa Bay for the AL East lead and 4.5 games back of Oakland for the second wild card spot.  The Tigers are all but officially eliminated from the playoffs and they’re one of the teams Toronto likely needs to sweep if they want a shot at October baseball.

The Jays are fairly heavy -310 home favourites to win on the MLB odds, with a total of 9.0.

Betting Analysis

These teams haven’t met since Toronto took four of seven meetings in 2019.  The total went Under in five of those games.

Detroit has lost five of their last six games overall, but it’s worth noting they’ve won four of their last five on the road.  The total has gone Over in five of their last six games, but five straight games between these teams in Toronto have gone Under.  The Tigers will be facing left-hander Robbie Ray and they’ve gone 22-18 against lefties this season.  They’re 68-55 against the spread.

The Blue Jays dropped six of nine games on their recent road trip.  They’ll likely be glad to get back to Toronto where they went 9-3 in their first Rogers Centre homestand since 2019.  The total has gone Over in six of the Jays’ last seven games this season.  Toronto is also facing a leftie on the mound in Tyler Alexander.  They’ve gone 15-17 against left-handers this year.  The Blue Jays are 64-55 ATS this season.

Detroit Tigers

Detroit is looking to bounce back after a three-game sweep at the hands of the L.A. Angels.  The Tigers were up 10-2 in the fifth inning on Thursday thanks to homers from Zack Short, Jeimer Candalerio and Will Castro, as well as a bases-clearing double from Miguel Cabrera, before blowing the lead and losing 13-10.  In 4 2/3 innings of work, rookie starter Matt Manning allowed two runs on five hits and four walks, while striking out four.  Michael Fulmer was charged with the blown save and the loss after allowing three runs in just one inning.

Former reliever Tyler Alexander gets the start on Friday.  It will be Alexander’s first start since Detroit dropped a 7-4 decision to Cleveland last Friday.  Alexander went five innings in that game, allowing four runs on six hits and no walks while striking out four.  He’s made 32 appearances this season, including eight starts, going 2-2 with a 4.57 ERA.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto’s two-game series in Washington went about as bad as it possibly could have and saw them give up 20 combined runs to a brutal Nats team.  They had the day off on Thursday after dropping an 8-5 decision to Washington on Wednesday.  Marcus Semien had two solo homers, while Corey Dickerson had a two-run bomb and Teoscar Hernandez also had a solo deep shot.  Trade deadline acquisition Jose Berrios lasted five innings.  He allowed two earned runs on five hits and three walks while striking out three and making a costly error.  Brad Hand was charged with the loss in relief after allowing three runs and only getting two outs.

The Blue Jays’ bullpen could cost the team their season.  Toronto has the second-best combined batting average in the league (.265) and best OPS (7.87), but their bullpen has a 0.1 WAR (wins above replacement) which is second-last in the majors.  Robbie Ray gets the start to open the series.  He’s having the best season of his career, going 9-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 167 strikeouts over 137 1/3 innings.  Ray went seven innings against Seattle in his last outing, last Friday.  He gave up two runs on just five hits and one walk while striking out eight, but didn’t get a decision.

Of note, George Springer doesn’t look like he’s anywhere close to returning to the lineup after suffering a sprained knee in last week’s Seattle series.

MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Tigers vs. Blue Jays?