After a disastrous nine-game road trip, the Toronto Blue Jays are back home at Rogers Centre on Friday night to open a three-game set against the Detroit Tigers.  There’s very little margin for error now as the Jays sit 10.5 games back of Tampa Bay for the AL East lead and 4.5 games back of Oakland for the second wild card spot.  The Tigers are all but officially eliminated from the playoffs and they’re one of the teams Toronto likely needs to sweep if they want a shot at October baseball.

The Jays are fairly heavy -310 home favourites to win on the MLB odds, with a total of 9.0.

Betting Analysis

These teams haven’t met since Toronto took four of seven meetings in 2019.  The total went Under in five of those games.

Detroit has lost five of their last six games overall, but it’s worth noting they’ve won four of their last five on the road.  The total has gone Over in five of their last six games, but five straight games between these teams in Toronto have gone Under.  The Tigers will be facing left-hander Robbie Ray and they’ve gone 22-18 against lefties this season.  They’re 68-55 against the spread.

The Blue Jays dropped six of nine games on their recent road trip.  They’ll likely be glad to get back to Toronto where they went 9-3 in their first Rogers Centre homestand since 2019.  The total has gone Over in six of the Jays’ last seven games this season.  Toronto is also facing a leftie on the mound in Tyler Alexander.  They’ve gone 15-17 against left-handers this year.  The Blue Jays are 64-55 ATS this season.

Detroit Tigers

Detroit is looking to bounce back after a three-game sweep at the hands of the L.A. Angels.  The Tigers were up 10-2 in the fifth inning on Thursday thanks to homers from Zack Short, Jeimer Candalerio and Will Castro, as well as a bases-clearing double from Miguel Cabrera, before blowing the lead and losing 13-10.  In 4 2/3 innings of work, rookie starter Matt Manning allowed two runs on five hits and four walks, while striking out four.  Michael Fulmer was charged with the blown save and the loss after allowing three runs in just one inning.

Former reliever Tyler Alexander gets the start on Friday.  It will be Alexander’s first start since Detroit dropped a 7-4 decision to Cleveland last Friday.  Alexander went five innings in that game, allowing four runs on six hits and no walks while striking out four.  He’s made 32 appearances this season, including eight starts, going 2-2 with a 4.57 ERA.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto’s two-game series in Washington went about as bad as it possibly could have and saw them give up 20 combined runs to a brutal Nats team.  They had the day off on Thursday after dropping an 8-5 decision to Washington on Wednesday.  Marcus Semien had two solo homers, while Corey Dickerson had a two-run bomb and Teoscar Hernandez also had a solo deep shot.  Trade deadline acquisition Jose Berrios lasted five innings.  He allowed two earned runs on five hits and three walks while striking out three and making a costly error.  Brad Hand was charged with the loss in relief after allowing three runs and only getting two outs.

The Blue Jays’ bullpen could cost the team their season.  Toronto has the second-best combined batting average in the league (.265) and best OPS (7.87), but their bullpen has a 0.1 WAR (wins above replacement) which is second-last in the majors.  Robbie Ray gets the start to open the series.  He’s having the best season of his career, going 9-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 167 strikeouts over 137 1/3 innings.  Ray went seven innings against Seattle in his last outing, last Friday.  He gave up two runs on just five hits and one walk while striking out eight, but didn’t get a decision.

Of note, George Springer doesn’t look like he’s anywhere close to returning to the lineup after suffering a sprained knee in last week’s Seattle series.

MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Tigers vs. Blue Jays?

• Regular Season

Tigers Team Leaders

DET

HR	Gregory Soto 0
BA	Gregory Soto 0
SB	Gregory Soto 0

TOR

HR	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 48
BA	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.31
SB	Bo Bichette 25

• Regular Season

Blue Jays Team Leaders

DET

HR	Gregory Soto 0
BA	Gregory Soto 0
SB	Gregory Soto 0

TOR

HR	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 48
BA	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.31
SB	Bo Bichette 25

Injuries

Detroit

Erasmo Ramirez (RP)

Out indefinitely Pectoral - 08 / 05 / 21

Wilson Ramos (C)

Out indefinitely Back - 06 / 05 / 21

Derek Holland (RP)

Out indefinitely Shoulder - 06 / 05 / 21

Matthew Boyd (SP)

Prob Tues Knee - 29 / 04 / 21

Nomar Mazara (RF)

Ques Sat Abdominal - 15 / 04 / 21

Miguel Cabrera (1B)

Early May Bicep - 11 / 04 / 21

Julio Teheran (SP)

Out indefinitely Shoulder - 10 / 04 / 21

Miguel Cabrera (1B)

Prob Mon Undisclosed - 04 / 04 / 21

Rony Garcia (RP)

Mid May Appendix - 28 / 03 / 21

Spencer Turnbull (SP)

Prob Wed Illness - 20 / 03 / 21

Toronto

Joakim Soria (RP)

Out indefinitely Illness - 25 / 09 / 21

Joakim Soria (RP)

Out indefinitely Personal - 18 / 09 / 21

Jose Berrios (SP)

Prob Sun Abdominal - 14 / 09 / 21

Brad Hand (RP)

Out indefinitely Personal - 26 / 08 / 21

Corey Dickerson (LF)

Ques Fri Back - 13 / 08 / 21

Joakim Soria (RP)

Out indefinitely Finger - 04 / 08 / 21

Joel Payamps (RP)

Ques Sat Back - 26 / 06 / 21

Carl Edwards Jr. (RP)

Early Sept Oblique - 16 / 06 / 21

Travis Bergen (RP)

Out indefinitely Shoulder - 27 / 05 / 21

Rafael Dolis (RP)

Out indefinitely Calf - 08 / 05 / 21

Injuries

Detroit

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Erasmo Ramirez (RP)	Out indefinitely	Pectoral - 08 / 05 / 21	81-48	55-68-6	+ -
Ramirez has been shuttled to the 10-day injured list with a right pectoral strain, and there is no timetable for his return.
Wilson Ramos (C)	Out indefinitely	Back - 06 / 05 / 21	82-49	57-68-6	+ -
Ramos has been shifted to the 10-day injured list with a lumbar spine strain, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
Derek Holland (RP)	Out indefinitely	Shoulder - 06 / 05 / 21	82-49	57-68-6	+ -
Holland has been moved to the 10-day injured list with a left shoulder strain, and there is no timetable for return.
Matthew Boyd (SP)	Prob Tues	Knee - 29 / 04 / 21	83-55	61-71-6	+ -
Boyd was removed from his last outing with left knee tendinitis, but he is expected to make his next scheduled start Tuesday against the Royals.
Nomar Mazara (RF)	Ques Sat	Abdominal - 15 / 04 / 21	87-63	64-79-7	+ -
Mazara has been activated from the 10-day injured list with a left abdominal strain, and it is unknown if he will be active for Saturday's tilt versus the Twins.
Miguel Cabrera (1B)	Early May	Bicep - 11 / 04 / 21	89-65	66-81-7	+ -
Cabrera has hit the 10-day injured list with a mild left bicep strain, and he is not expected to be available until the beginning of May.
Julio Teheran (SP)	Out indefinitely	Shoulder - 10 / 04 / 21	89-66	66-82-7	+ -
Teheran has been transferred to the 60-day injured list with a right shoulder strain, and it is unknown when he will return to the mound.
Miguel Cabrera (1B)	Prob Mon	Undisclosed - 04 / 04 / 21	92-68	68-85-7	+ -
Cabrera missed the previous game due to cramping, but it is anticipated that he will dress for Monday's matchup with the Twins.
Rony Garcia (RP)	Mid May	Appendix - 28 / 03 / 21	86-66	65-80-7	+ -
Garcia has been placed on the 10-day injured list while recovering from an appendectomy, and he is not expected to be available until the middle of May.
Spencer Turnbull (SP)	Prob Wed	Illness - 20 / 03 / 21	92-68	67-86-7	+ -
Turnbull has landed on the COVID-19 injured list, but he is expected to make his season debut against the Pirates on Wednesday.

Toronto

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Joakim Soria (RP)	Out indefinitely	Illness - 25 / 09 / 21	5-4	2-5-2	+ -
Soria has popped up on the COVID-19 IL, and it is unknown when he will return.
Joakim Soria (RP)	Out indefinitely	Personal - 18 / 09 / 21	8-7	4-9-2	+ -
Soria has been placed on the family medical emergency list, and it is unknown when he will return.
Jose Berrios (SP)	Prob Sun	Abdominal - 14 / 09 / 21	10-8	4-10-4	+ -
Berrios was removed from his previous outing due to left abdominal tightness, but it is expected that he will make his next scheduled start versus the Twins on Sunday.
Brad Hand (RP)	Out indefinitely	Personal - 26 / 08 / 21	20-17	12-20-5	+ -
Hand has been added to the bereavement list due to an undisclosed reason, and it remains to be seen when he will return to the bullpen.
Corey Dickerson (LF)	Ques Fri	Back - 13 / 08 / 21	23-26	18-26-5	+ -
Dickerson exited the previous contest with back tightness, and is is unknown if he will suit up versus the Mariners on Friday.
Joakim Soria (RP)	Out indefinitely	Finger - 04 / 08 / 21	28-30	22-30-6	+ -
Soria has been shuttled to the 10-day injured list with a right middle finger inflammation, and there is no timetable for return.
Joel Payamps (RP)	Ques Sat	Back - 26 / 06 / 21	45-43	34-47-7	+ -
Payamps sat out the previous game due to a sore back, and it is unknown if he will be used out of the bullpen against the Orioles on Saturday.
Carl Edwards Jr. (RP)	Early Sept	Oblique - 16 / 06 / 21	51-46	38-52-7	+ -
Edwards Jr. has been moved to the 60-day injured list with a left oblique strain. He has begun a rehab assignment, and he is not projected to be activated until early September.
Travis Bergen (RP)	Out indefinitely	Shoulder - 27 / 05 / 21	62-53	45-62-8	+ -
Bergen has landed on the 10-day injured list with a left shoulder injury, and it has yet to be established when he will return.
Rafael Dolis (RP)	Out indefinitely	Calf - 08 / 05 / 21	70-62	56-68-8	+ -
Dolis was added to the 10-day injured list with right calf soreness, and a status for his return to action is unknown.

Weather

temp	82
condition	sunny
wind	Out to Center 4mph