Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
The American League East has turned chaotic with just four games remaining in the regular season. The Toronto Blue Jays (90-68) looked like division champions a week ago, priced at -3300 to win the AL East, but six losses in their last seven games have blown the race wide open.
The Boston Red Sox (87-71), meanwhile, have surged into the second Wild Card spot and now aim to complete a sweep at Rogers Centre. With the Yankees chasing Toronto and feasting on the White Sox, this matchup could decide whether the Jays keep pace or lose control of their destiny for the AL East crown.
Toronto is a -140 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 8.0.
Betting Analysis
Boston’s offence has carried the club in this series, plating 11 runs off Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer and the Toronto bullpen. Carlos Narvaez has been the breakout bat with five RBIs, while Masataka Yoshida and Trevor Story have chipped in with multi-hit games.
The Sox have scored at least three runs in seven straight outings, going 5-2 in that span. By contrast, Toronto has been held to one run or fewer in five of its last six losses. Despite the Jays’ potent season-long home splits, Bo Bichette’s absence has left their lineup vulnerable.
Boston Red Sox
Boston is grinding through September without rookie phenom Roman Anthony and pitchers Dustin May and Jordan Hicks, while Tristan Casas has long been ruled out. Still, the offence has found production from unexpected sources like Romy Gonzalez and Narvaez. On the mound, Brayan Bello gets the start. The 25-year-old right-hander has been steady in 2025 with a 3.34 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 2.4 WAR across 27 starts.
However, September has been his roughest stretch, as he’s pitched to a 5.85 ERA in four outings. Historically, Toronto’s veterans have hit him hard: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer are a combined 21-for-55 with three homers against Bello.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are limping to the finish line. Bichette remains sidelined, while Ty France and Chris Bassitt are also unavailable. The club did welcome back Anthony Santander for the first time since May, but the lineup has yet to click. Toronto’s bullpen owns an ERA north of 4.00 and lacks shutdown arms, while Bassitt’s injury leaves the starting pitching situation unsettled for this game. That uncertainty, combined with the offensive slump, has turned what once looked like a division-clinching stretch into a desperate fight to avoid collapse.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Red Sox vs. Blue Jays?
This matchup shapes up to be a shootout. Bello has struggled in September and the Blue Jays’ hitters have strong career numbers against him, so Toronto should finally show life offensively. But the Jays’ pitching uncertainty and shaky bullpen give Boston an edge late.
The Red Sox bullpen has been excellent in this series, with Aroldis Chapman anchoring the late innings, and that could prove decisive. My final score prediction is the Red Sox to beat the Blue Jays 7-5, making Over 8.0 my best bet. Both lineups are expected to break through, and the call is for Boston to complete the sweep in a high-scoring affair.
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