Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: Odds, Prediction
The American League-best Tampa Bay Rays (68-46) stay out west after a sweep of the Rockies to do battle in Seattle with the scuffing Mariners (56-60).
These teams met in early July in Tampa Bay, and the Rays took two out of three. Since that series, the Rays are 12-8 and the Mariners are 8-11. However, the Rays are 12-4 in their last 16. The Mariners remain at home after losing two out of three to Detroit, as they were outscored 21-4 in the series.
First pitch on Friday is set for 9:45 p.m. ET, and the game can be streamed on Apple TV+. If you’re looking for a big-picture preview on this matchup, you’re in the right spot.
Seattle is a slim -118 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 7.0.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
We have a good pitching matchup on tap. Drew Rasmussen for the Rays carries a 2.91 ERA and 0.93 WHIP into a matchup against Logan Gilbert for the Mariners, who owns a 3.46 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
The Rays have already seen and defeated Gilbert this season, collecting nine hits and four earned runs off the tall right-hander back in Tampa Bay. In fact, the Rays are 16-for-54 lifetime against Gilbert with doubles and a .782 OPS.
On the other side, the Mariners are 10-for-45 against Rasmussen with three home runs and a .706 OPS.
Tampa Bay Rays
Rasmussen was excellent in his first August start, completing six shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against the Chicago White Sox. He should benefit against a Mariners team that ranks 27th in home OPS (.685) and 22nd in OPS against right-handed pitching (.703).
The Rays will have to adjust to a stark environmental shift. They go from Coors Field, which ranks as the most hitter-friendly environment in baseball, to T-Mobile Park, which ranks as the most pitcher-friendly environment in baseball.
The Rays are 41-18 at home but a game under .500 on the road. Star slugger Junior Caminero may have just had five hits with three home runs in Colorado, but he faces an uphill battle against Gilbert in Seattle.
The Rays are awesome against RHP (.755 OPS – 5th in MLB), but they struggle on the road, owning a .703 OPS.
Seattle Mariners
As of late, things have looked grim, but the Mariners are still just three games out of the division lead. What’s shocking is that Gilbert has actually been considerably worse at home this year, pitching to a 4.12 ERA at T-Mobile Park.
What’s worse is that the offence behind him has been entirely unreliable. Brendan Donovan just returned against the Tigers after being out since mid-May, so hopefully he can provide a spark.
The problem is that only Randy Arozarena and Dominic Canzone have an OPS north of .800 against RHP, and only Cole Young and Arozarena boast an OPS north of .800 since the all-star break.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Rays vs. Mariners?
Gilbert and Rasmussen both place top-five in baseball in WHIP, which means baserunners will likely be hard to come by. While both pitchers are susceptible to the long ball, this stadium keeps balls in the yard better than most.
Gilbert may have his struggles at home, but in a revenge spot for him, I am betting runs will be at a premium. I like the Rays in a tight, low-scoring affair, in part thanks to the consistency from Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda at the plate.
Best Bet: Under 7 (-105)
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SEA