Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
The AL East title and top seed in the Junior Circuit post-season remain a strong possibility for the Blue Jays as they enter their final regular-season home series this weekend against playoff-eliminated Tampa Bay. Toronto is a -185 favourite on the MLB odds with a total of 7.5 for Friday’s opener.
Betting Analysis
Small-market Tampa Bay will miss the playoffs for a second straight season, which the franchise hadn’t done since 2017-18. But the Rays dealt with a lot of injuries this year, especially in the rotation. Ace Shane McClanahan missed all of 2024 but was expected to be ready to start 2025. He hasn’t pitched an inning and won’t. And the Rays had to deal with playing all their home games in the unfamiliar environment of the Yankees’ spring training complex.
I’d expect Tampa Bay to be back contending for a playoff spot next year with better health and a return to its usual home of Tropicana Field. The Rays’ sale was officially approved by MLB owners this week. The team will start again trying to get a new stadium built but in Tampa.
Toronto enters the weekend tied atop the AL East with the New York Yankees, but he Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker with the Yanks hosting Baltimore for three this weekend and certain to be favoured in each game. The loser would have to play Tuesday in the Wild-Card Series but would host the No. 6 seed (could be Detroit, Cleveland, Boston or Houston), while the winner goes straight to the ALDS next weekend. The Blue Jays are -170 division favourites with the Yankees +140.
Toronto hasn’t won a season series vs. Tampa Bay since 2017 and won’t this year, either, trailing 7-3. The Rays took two of three at Rogers Centre from May 13-15. George Springer is batting just .158 vs. Rays pitching this year and Addison Barger .139. As a team, Toronto is batting .201 in the series. The Rays’ Brandon Lowe is hitting.395 with five homers and 15 RBIs vs. the Blue Jays this season.
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay is playing out the string and saw two regulars in outfielder Everson Pereira and first baseman/DH Yandy Diaz leave with injuries from Thursday’s loss to Baltimore. No reason to have them play this weekend and risk something serious. Infielder Jonathan Aranda, who leads the team with a .316 average, has been out since late July and may or may not be activated this weekend.
Veteran righty Adrian Houser (8-4, 3.19 ERA), acquired from the White Sox around the trade deadline, makes his final start of the year and likely with the franchise as Houser will be a free agent. He hasn’t been nearly as good with the Rays at 2-2 with a 4.65 ERA in nine starts, but he didn’t cost much in terms of a prospect return to Chicago.
Houser is 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA in two starts this year vs. the Blue Jays, who are hitting a robust .280 off him. Both of those starts came while he was with the White Sox. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen him the most of any Toronto hitter just is just 1-for-11. Tampa Bay is 6-13 in its past 19 games.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays got a huge 6-1 home win over Boston on Thursday to keep pace with the Yankees atop the AL East. Toronto had scored just one run in each of the first two games of the Red Sox series. Daulton Varsho hit his fifth career grand slam on Thursday.
Toronto improved to 69-4 when it scores five runs or more. Anthony Santander was activated off the injured list earlier this week and has gone 1-for-5 with a run scored and three strikeouts in two games. Shortstop Bo Bichette will not be activated this weekend, however, in a race against time to be ready for the playoffs.
Trade acquisition Shane Bieber makes what is likely his final regular-season start with Toronto as the 2020 AL Cy Young winner with Cleveland is not expected to exercise his $16 million (US) player option for 2026 and will hit free agency, although it’s certainly possible the Jays sign the 30-year-old long term. He is 3-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in six starts since the trade. Bieber hasn’t faced the Rays in 2025 and only a few Tampa Bay batters have seen him career. Toronto is 5-2 in its past seven at home.
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