Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
The Blue Jays open a nine-game homestand Friday night when they welcome the AL East-rival Baltimore Orioles to Rogers Centre for the first time this season. Behind AL Rookie of the Year candidate Trey Yesavage, Toronto is -150 on the MLB odds with a total of 8.5 runs.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
Perhaps the Orioles are starting to figure some things out under first-year manager Craig Albernaz. They were eight games under .500 on May 20 after being swept in a three-game series at Tampa Bay but have won seven of 10 to climb out of the AL East cellar. Big-ticket offseason free-agent addition Pete Alonso is starting to hit.
Is this a playoff team? Not likely because the rotation, which includes former Blue Jays righty Chris Bassitt (will miss the series and is hurt), leaves a lot to be desired. That group has a 4.55 ERA and there is nothing close to an ace. To reach the playoffs for the first time since 2023, the Orioles are +185.
After this weekend, these division rivals won’t face off again until after the All-Star break. They split four at Camden Yards last week, with the Blue Jays winning the first two and the Orioles the last two. Three of the four were decided by a run.
Ernie Clement was 6-for-16 in the series with two doubles, two RBIs and three runs scored. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was 6-for-17 with two doubles, two RBIs and three runs scored. Rookie Kazuma Okamoto had a homer and four RBIs but hit only .154 with six Ks. Samuel Basallo was 5-for-9 for the Orioles with a double, homer and three RBIs, while Alonso was 5-for-16 with a homer, three RBIs and three runs scored. Star catcher Adley Rutschman just 1-for-13.
The Blue Jays were 5-2 vs. the Orioles at Rogers Centre in 2025 and haven’t lost a season series there since 2023.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles took two of three in Boston to open this week, winning the finale 8-2 on Thursday as the entire offence seems to have awakened of late. Baltimore scored six in the first inning. I mentioned Pete Alonso above, and he had two hits Thursday to extend his hitting streak to eight games. Alonso was hitting .232 when this started and is up to .246. Because the O’s won in easy fashion yesterday, their bullpen is pretty much fully available behind second-year righty Brandon Young (3-1, 3.35). Who is the 27-year-old Texas native? He was terrible as a rookie in 2025 at 1-7 with a 6.24 ERA but has been arguably the team’s best starter so far in 2026.
Baltimore has won his past five, including last Saturday when Young took a no-decision at home vs. Toronto, allowing two runs and seven hits over 6.2 innings. Young has failed to get a decision in four straight games. The Jays’ Jesus Sanchez has had success against him at 5-for-12 with two doubles and two RBIs. The under is 4-1 in the Orioles’ past five away.
Toronto Blue Jays
Arguably Toronto’s best and most unlikely win of the season came Thursday as the Jays snapped a four-game winning streak by upsetting the Braves and NL Cy Young contender Chris Sale in Atlanta by a score of 7-2. A whopping six Toronto hitters had multiple hits, with Ernie Clement and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leading the way with three each.
The Jays did use all their key relievers because it was essentially a bullpen day. None of those main guys pitched Wednesday, so they should all be available tonight behind AL Rookie of the Year candidate and righty Trey Yesavage (2-2, 2.19 ERA). He has allowed more than two earned just once in seven starts this year and took a no-decision in Baltimore last Saturday, allowing a run and two hits over five. Yesavage is 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA in five home starts. Toronto is 5-2 in its past seven at Rogers Centre.
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