MLB Opening Day Best Bets: Blue Jays Over, Yankees face Giants
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Edgar Chaput
And so another Major League Baseball season commences. Fans flock to the stadiums for the Opening Day festivities and all the pomp and circumstance that comes along with it. There is a sense of peace and hope when, on the morning of, one looks at the standings and sees that every club has a 0-0 win-loss record.
That will have changed by Thursday night of course. Some teams will be 1-0, and others 0-1, but how will it happen? What are the most likely Opening Day scenarios? We look at some props and discern which ones are worth your consideration.
Be sure to check out our American League, National League, and interleague props for all your Major League Baseball action.
Of course be sure to watch the inaugural episode of Pitch Clock, co-hosted by Dave Bastl and former Blue Jays Manager John Gibbons.
American League: Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners
One of the hottest games on Opening Day is in the late window and features two teams that made it to the postseason last year. The Guardians finished 2022 at 92-70, which was good enough to award them the AL Central. Moreover, they won it by a comfortable 11 games over the second-place White Sox. Interestingly they were just as efficient at home as they were away, finishing 46-35 in both instances. Seattle made it back to the playoffs for the first time in forever, snatching up the second and last Wild Card spot with a 90-72 record.
The MLB odds have the Guardians at -102 on the moneyline and -221 on the runline (the baseball version of the spread, or hockey’s puckline). A low-scoring game is expected, with the total set at 6.5. Both Cleveland and Seattle sport top 10 rotations as far as ERA is concerned and the 2022 Mariners had the league’s fifth-best field percentage at .988. Getting on base, let alone scoring, is very difficult against both sides.
Shane Bieber gets the call for Cleveland and Luis Castillo will be on the mound for Seattle.
The under looks good here.
National League: Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs
What better way to start a campaign than by renewing hostilities with a divisional rival? Opening Day features a good old NL Central bout between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Chicago Cubs from Wrigley Field. Milwaukee came achingly close to partaking in payoff baseball last year, finishing 86-76, just three fewer wins than the San Diego Padres who went on to play in the NLCS. Chicago wasn’t quite as strong, going 74-88.
The MLB odds have the Brewers at -147 on the moneyline and +118 on the runline. The total is set at 7.5. The latter is a tricky prop. Milwaukee didn’t exactly light it up last year with their 22nd-ranked .235 batting average, yet their slugging was a solid .409, good for 10th. The Cubs were average in both respects, finishing 19th in both categories. Corbin Burnes will start for the Brewers. Burnes had a nice 2022, finishing 12-8 with a respectable 2.94 ERA.
Expect Milwaukee’s starter to take care of business and keep Chicago bats quiet enough for the Brewers to cover the runline.
Interleague play: San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees
One of the early slots has the San Francisco Giants kick off their season across the country in New York to face the Yankees. It might not seem like the most exciting match given that only one of these sides was a playoff team last year. The Yankees made it all the way to the ALCS, whereas the Giants could not build off a strong 2021, playing .500 baseball at 81-81, well out of a postseason birth.
However, fans could be in for a good pitching duel as Gerrit Cole, representing the pinstripes, faces off with San Fran’s Logan Webb, who had a great 2022 (15-9, 2.90 ERA). It should be pointed out that only two seasons ago the Giants were a 107-win ball club, so we know they can play. The Yankees are perched as -186 favourites on the moneyline and +122 on the runline.
Giants keep it close at +1.5.
Interleague play: Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals
We would be remiss to kick off a new MLB season and talk about some Best Bets whilst omitting Toronto. The Blue Jays are in Missouri to face the Cardinals in the late afternoon window. We spent an entire article waxing poetic about Toronto’s strengths and highlighting what some of its weaknesses might be. The Cardinals didn’t get any mention in our Monday preview (it was only about the top five teams) but it should not be overlooked that they had an enviable 2022. Their 93-69 win-loss tally was strong in its own right and earned them NL Central Division bragging rights.
This is probably the other great game on Opening Day, along with Guardians-Mariners contest we opened with. The Jays sit at -117 on the moneyline and +150 on the runline. They’ll be sending Alek Manoah to the mound, whereas the home team Cards will put their faith in Miles Mikolas. His ERA last season was okay (3.29) but ended with a win-loss record under .500 at 12-13. Both teams hit very well in 2022, with batting averages and slugging good for spots in the top 10.
Two bets look good here. Cardinals with the spread (so they can still lose by a run and the better wins) or the 7.5 over.