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Edgar Chaput
2023 Early Season Major League Baseball Futures, Odds
For some in the northern states and Canada, it might sound funny to hear that the “boys of summer” are back, but whichever climate you have to deal with in the dying days of March, at least Major League Baseball is on tv.
Spring training is creeping to an end, with the final few pre-season games being played as of this writing. It’s time to get ready for the marathon that is the 162-game regular season and, eventually, unforgettable October and early November baseball. There is a lot of baseball to play, and no one really knows what the next seven months have in store for fans, but for now, let’s have some fun with MLB Futures.
World Series Favourites
There are 153 MLB Futures to explore at Sports Interaction. No single article can discuss all of them – who thinks the American League pennant will be between the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins? – so we’ll satiate our appetite with a reminder of the clubs that Vegas deems as real heavy hitters as the 2023 campaign gets underway.
Houston Astros
Of course, the defending champions. While it may seem facile to simply award Houston the best odds at +445 because they won the World Series most recently, the reality is that they have been a threat to everyone in the league for a handful of seasons. A sportsbook doesn’t feel like the place to discuss the controversy that exploded a few years ago but suffice it to say that the Astros are a baseball behemoth. The Tom Brady-era New England Patriots of the MLB, if you will.
They sported the second-best winning percentage in 2022 (.654) behind only the LA Dodgers. Their rotation earned the second-most wins (106), the second-lowest run average (2.90), and the bullpen the second-most saves (53, behind Atlanta in this instance). Defence and pitching is more than name of the game with the Astros, who had only the 12th-highest batting average, although fourth in home runs. Framber Valdez is their top guy in the rotation, especially after Justin Verlander’s departure. It should be noted that one of their best players, Jose Altuve, suffered a hand injury during the World Baseball Classic and will be out for a while.
Atlanta Braves
Second-best odds (+519) to go the side that won it all two seasons ago, the Atlanta Braves. After the champagne was tasted and appreciated in late 2021, Brian Snitker’s men resumed where they left off. Their 2022 regular season was replete with highs and very few lows, going 101-61, just like the New York Mets, but earning the East Division Crown off tiebreakers.
Unfortunately, their World Series defence didn’t last long. They were the Cinderella Phillies’ second victim in the NLDS as the latter when on to face the eventual champion Astros in the Fall Classic. Only the Yankees and Dodgers scored more runs than they did in 2022 (789), and only the Yankees smashed more balls out of the park (254 to 243). Considering their ninth-best batting average, the Braves clearly operate with an offensive mind – which may have sunk them in October, when defence and pitching play a larger role. Max Fried is their go-to pitcher. Third baseman Austin Riley didn’t have the club’s best batting average in 2022 (that went to Dansby Swanson, now a Cub) but his slugging was excellent at .528.
New York Yankees
No, the Los Angeles Dodgers are not even third on the list. The Yankees earn that privilege with +556 odds. Love them or hate them – and the passions are often very hot when discussing this team – they are the one franchise that can look back at an AL East division crown, a 99-63 record, and an ALCS sweep defeat and conclude “Nope. Not good enough.” That is undoubted to the ire of teams that would love to partake in a single inning of playoff baseball, but we digress.
Unsurprisingly the story with the New York is about Aaron Judge. The new home run king (62 last season!) was sensational all year. Home runs make for a good show, but a .311 batting average, 131 runs batted in, and insane .686 slugging are what win games. Gerrit Cole is their starting pitcher, which arguably speaks to where the team’s weaknesses lie. A 13-8 record in 2022 is fine but unspectacular, as was his 3.50 ERA. He and Jordon Montgomery were the best-ranked Yankees pitchers…at 30th and 29th. But where there is a will, there is a way, and there’s a reason why this team is always part of the conversation.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Ah, there they are. Tied for third at +556. One wonders if this is too high or too low. On the one hand, LA was clear and away the best team in baseball last season. No one was close to their 111-51 record and .685 winning percentage. They had the most away wins (54) and were tied with the Yankees for the most home wins (57). On the flip side, well, there was that prediction made by manager Dave Roberts exactly a year ago just before the 2022 season got underway. Obviously, every manager has confidence in their players. The Dodgers were also among the favourites. But the 3-1 NLDS loss to San Diego stung. Badly. 111 regular season wins and one postseason victory? Unacceptable.
None of that changes the reality that the Dodgers are an excellent club, and therefore are once again viewed as a potential champion. Julio Urias leads the way in the rotation and his 2.16 ERA in 2022 was chef’s kiss worthy. Trea Turner was one of their best hitters, but he made a winter crossing over to Philadelphia and never came back. First baseman Freddie Freeman remains, and his .325 average was terrific, as was the .511 slugging that came along with it.
San Diego Padres
This is different! It’s been a while since the Padres entered an MLB campaign as a serious part of the conversation about World Series hopefuls. Other than a solid record during the truncated 2020 season, San Diego has been pretty bad for a while. 2022 changed all that. The coming out party was to the tune of a respectable 89-73 record, good for second in the NL West and a Wild Card spot. They memorably went to New York in October for a best-of-three series with the Mets and won 2-1, then ousted the perennial favourite Dodgers 3-1 in the NLDS. Another surprise team, the Phillies, got the better of them in the NLCS 4-1.
San Diego wasn’t the best at anything in 2022, but was respectable-to-good in just about everything, which is the sign of a well-balanced club that can earn wins in a variety of ways. Former Cub Yu Darvish is the leading man in the rotation. He posted a 16-8 record last season, supported by a reasonable 3.10 ERA. Looking at their depth chart, injuries (and suspensions) are already problems. Manny Machado is around, thank goodness. He is neither injured nor suspended and led the team with his .298 batting average and 102 RBIs in 2022.
Toronto Blue Jays
And what of Canada’s lone squad? Good question. More on them in our next 2023 MLB preview! How’s that for “closing”?
