Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays Wild Card: Game 1 Odds, Prediction
The Blue Jays open their American League best-of-3 Wild-Card series at home against the Seattle Mariners on Friday. Toronto is a -145 favourite to win on the MLB odds.
MLB Playoff Betting Analysis
This is the first-ever postseason meeting between Seattle and Toronto. The Mariners hadn’t made the playoffs since 2001, which was the longest drought in the majors. The Jays last played extra baseball in 2020 and were swept in two games at the Tampa Bay Rays in a Wild-Card series.
The Mariners won the regular-season series 5-2, but that’s in large part because they swept four at home from July 7-10. Eugenio Suarez hit Jays pitching well, going 8-for-24 with three homers and seven RBIs. Catcher Cal Raleigh went yard twice and knocked in five. Sure-fire AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez was 5-for-26 with six strikeouts and a stolen base.
Santiago Espinal was 9-for-27 vs. Seattle but didn’t have an RBI. Bo Bichette hit .310 with two homers and six RBIs. George Springer had two homers, two doubles and a homer in 25 at-bats. Teoscar Hernandez hit only .185 and Matt Chapman .143.
On the series line, Toronto is -200 and Seattle +155.
Seattle Mariners
One has to feel a bit sorry for Mariners fans because their team hadn’t made the playoffs in more than two decades and they don’t even get a home game unless they advance to the Divisional Series. It’s not often that a team’s best player is a rookie, but no question that’s the case on the M’s with Rodriguez, who looks like a future MVP. Seattle is 75-56 when he is in the lineup and 15-16 when he is not. Rodriguez became the third rookie in MLB history to reach 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases. He finished with 28 homers, 75 RBIs and 25 steals.
It will be Luis Castillo on the mound Friday – he was acquired around the Trade Deadline from Cincinnati. In 11 starts with the Mariners, he was 4-2 with a 3.17 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 65.1 innings. His lone postseason start was in 2020 with Cincinnati, and he was a tough-luck loser in allowing one run in six innings in Atlanta. On May 20 this year while still with the Reds, Castillo allowed two runs in six innings in a loss. Raimel Tapia has had the most career success against him of any Toronto batter, going 7-for-11 with a double, triple and homer. Seattle is 1-8 in its past nine series openers.
Toronto Blue Jays
Will the Jays have either Espinal or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for this series? Espinal has been sidelined since Sept. 22 due to a left oblique strain and Gurriel since Sept. 8 because of a left hamstring strain. Both did on-field work in Toronto on Wednesday, so they could be on the Wild-Card roster – although Espinal may have lost his job to red-hot Whit Merrifield.
In no surprise, ace right-hander Alek Manoah (16-7, 2.24 ERA) will start Game 1 on the mound in his playoff debut. He was 7-4 with a 2.42 ERA at home this year. Manoah faced the Mariners once this year, allowing two earned runs and just three hits over 7.1 innings in a loss. Carlos Santana is 2-for-7 career off him with a homer. Rodriguez is 0-for-3. Toronto is 16-5 in its past 21 following an off day.
