Cleveland Indians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Aug 02, 2021

The Jays returned to Toronto triumphantly with a three-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals. They'll look to build off that when they open a four-game series against Cleveland on Monday.

Cleveland
73-76
AT
August 02, 2021, 3:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
Toronto
84-65
Runline +1.5 +120
Moneyline +220
Over / Under o +9.5

12%

Betting Action

88%

Runline -1.5 -144
Moneyline -275
Over / Under u +9.5

12%

Betting Action

88%

The Blue Jays’ return to Toronto was nearly perfect with a three-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals over the weekend.  The Jays now sit just four games back of Oakland for the final wildcard spot and could make up a lot of room with a series win in their four-game home set against a struggling Cleveland team.

Toronto is a -325 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with a total of 9.5.

Betting Analysis

This is the second series these teams are facing off in this season.  The Blue Jays took two of three games in Cleveland in late May.  Toronto outscored Cleveland 20-9 over the three games and hit the Over twice.

Cleveland is in a freefall.  They’re 10-20 since June 24 and have dropped eight of their last 12 games.  Dating back to last season, however, Cleveland is 7-3 straight up in their last 10 games against Toronto.  The total has gone Over in four of their last five road games.

The Jays continue to push for a wildcard spot.  They’re on a four-game winning streak and have won five of their last six.  The total has gone Under in six of Toronto’s last eight games overall and 14 of their last 20 home games against Cleveland.

Cleveland Indians

Rookie Eli Morgan gets the start on the mound for Cleveland.  Morgan has allowed at least three runs in all seven starts since his big league debut on May 28.  That debut actually came against Toronto.  He allowed six runs on eight hits and two walks over 2 2/3 innings.  Morgan gives up an average of 3.16 home runs per nine innings and has given up multiple homers in four of his last six starts.  Those ugly numbers have ballooned his ERA to 7.47, though that number will likely lower if he can get some more games under his belt.

Cleveland’d bullpen has been a big issue, maybe even more-so than Toronto’s well-known struggles.  The bullpen has a 4.92 ERA over the last 30 days, good for 22nd in the league.  The offence likely won’t make up for those issue.  Cleveland has a serious lack of depth in their batting order.  Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes have both hit the 20 home run mark this season, but Bobby Bradley has faded lately and leadoff hitter Cesar Hernandez was traded to the White Sox at the deadline.

Toronto Blue Jays

Left-hander Robbie Ray gets the start for Toronto.  Ray has struggled over the last two seasons, putting up a 4.86 ERA, but he’s been much better this season, trimming that number to 3.04.  The biggest change is his lower walk rate.  After walking 4.34 batters per nine innings in 2019 and 7.84 last year, Ray has lowered his walk rate to 2.36 in 2021.  Ray is averaging 11.41 strikeouts per nine innings and he registered a 1.99 ERA over five starts in the month of July.

The Blue Jays offence has never been in question and it’s the main reason they still have a shot at the wildcard.  They’ve scored 28 runs over their last four games and they lead the majors with 159 home runs.  Toronto also leads the league with a .458 slugging percentage and .787 OPS.  Individually, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has led the way.  Guerrero leads the majors with 88 RBIs, is second in home runs (33) and is third in batting average (.327).

Who Will Win Indians vs. Blue Jays?

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