Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: Odds, Prediction
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Kevin Tompkins
Last night saw the Cubs put up double-digit runs and tag Dodgers starter Justin Wrobleski for seven earned runs in just 4 ⅓ innings in the 10-5 victory.
Before this evening’s first pitch at 8:05 PM ET, let’s go over the betting angles, review both teams and then make a prediction for this game.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
Here’s how Sports Interaction is pricing today’s game:
Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (-130) vs Cubs +1.5 (+108)
Money Line: Dodgers (-205) vs Cubs (+168)
Run Total (Over/Under): Over 9 (-102) / Under 9 (-120)
It’s the two best offenses in Major League Baseball linking up here, and that over 9.0 runs always seems tantalizing, especially when these two teams just played a 10-5 game the night before. I can’t imagine that the Cubs are going to get blanked in Skubal’s first start in a Dodger uniform, so I’m still expecting runs here tonight. Javier Assad is on the other side for the Cubs, but he’s bounced back and forth as a starter and long reliever to the tune of a 1.50 ERA in July. Still, with these two offences and projected 80-degree weather at first pitch, the over seems attractive.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have lost six of their last eight games, and frankly, it’s to be expected. No matter how good a team is, they’re bound to get into a slump at some point in the season. It just took the Dodgers over 100 games to get theirs. At the trade deadline, Los Angeles predictably made their big splash, sending River Ryan and prospects over to the Detroit Tigers for ace Tarik Skubal, who will pitch his first game as a Dodger tonight.
Their slump isn’t because of their offence: they’re still second in offensive WAR (21.1), third in runs (572), seventh in home runs, and first in OPS (.772) in baseball. They’re still loaded even with down seasons from free-agent pickup Kyle Tucker and no Will Smith or any offensive production from their catcher spot. They’re still buoyed by Freddie Freeman (.871 OPS) and, of course, Shohei Ohtani (.942 OPS). But it’s also Andy Pages and old reliable Max Muncy. Don’t forget Mookie Betts, either. It’s an embarrassment of riches, and the Dodgers are a much better team now than they were before the weekend.
Chicago Cubs
Could it be the Cubs to knock the Dodgers off the NL perch? The Cubs, with all the productive bats they have ranging from Seiya Suzuki (.846 OPS) to Michael Busch (.752 OPS) and Ian Happ (.739 OPS), are still living and dying by the sword (bat) of Pete Crow-Armstrong. Why wouldn’t they? Crow-Armstrong has been one of the best in baseball this season with his .919 OPS and .282/.383/.536 triple slash, plus 26 stolen bases to boot. With Shohei Ohtani not pitching because of a sore knee, it opens the door for PCA to make a real run at National League MVP.
Chicago has fully revamped their rotation over the past week, with them designating Jameson Taillon for assignment and adding Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman to Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd. That’s not the sexiest rotation, but it can stop opposing offences while the Cubs mash on offence. Look out, National League, because the Cubs could have what it takes to knock off the Dodgers not just in this series, but in October too.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Dodgers vs. Cubs?
This evening’s matchup pits new Dodger Tarik Skubal against the Cubs’ Javier Assad. Skubal has been auditioning for potential suitors this month, and he was awesome with a 2.03 ERA in July with a 3-1 record and just seven earned runs allowed in 31 innings across five starts. Opposing him is Assad, who, as previously mentioned, has been bouncing back and forth from starting pitcher to long reliever. His innings and pitch count may be reduced, and the Cubs may have to get into the bullpen a little quicker as a byproduct.
For this evening’s game, it’s hard not to bet on the Dodgers with Skubal on the mound, combined with the Dodgers’ run-scoring prowess. We’ll take Skubal and the Dodgers tonight, but for our bet, we’re taking the over on the run total with two slugging and productive offences.
Best Bet: Over 9.0 runs scored (-102)
Final Score Prediction: Dodgers 7 | Cubs 5
LAD
CHC