Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Odds, Prediction
Two of the National League’s top contenders are off to slow starts and meet in the middle of a three-game set in Philadelphia. The Chicago Cubs (7-9) and Philadelphia Phillies (8-8) both have ground to make up if they’re going to challenge the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bid for a three-peat.
The series opener delivered plenty of offence, with the Phillies cruising to a 13-7 win. Kyle Schwarber led the way with two home runs, while Cristopher Sanchez held Chicago to two runs over six innings. Cubs starter Javier Assad struggled mightily, surrendering nine runs in just 4.1 innings.
Two veteran right-handers take the mound tonight. Let’s break it down.
Betting Analysis
Monday delivered the fireworks, so let’s check out the odds for Tuesday matchup:
Chicago is a -140 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 9.5.
The Cubs enter at 5-11 against the run line and 9-7 on totals, while the Phillies sit at 4-12 ATS and 8-7-1 on totals. It’s a warm night in Philadelphia (27.7°C, partly cloudy), which should favour offence once again.
Chicago Cubs
Chicago is coming off a disappointing series loss to Pittsburgh and has now fallen behind in four straight games. Their only win in that stretch required multiple comeback efforts, which is not a sustainable formula.
They’ll turn to 35-year-old right-hander Colin Rea to try and stabilize things, but this is a difficult matchup. Several Phillies hitters have had success against him, including Brandon Marsh (5-for-6), J.T. Realmuto (5-for-11), and Kyle Schwarber, who has already done damage in this series.
Rea relies on chase and ground balls, but that plays right into a disciplined Philadelphia lineup. The Phillies rank in the top 10 in OPS against right-handed pitching and own one of the lowest chase rates in the league, which could neutralize Rea’s strengths.
Offensively, Chicago has had some bright spots. Nico Hoerner, Carson Kelly and Miguel Ballesteros have produced, but key bats like Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman are all hitting below .215 with OPS marks under .620. Seiya Suzuki is also still working his way back into form after injury.
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia’s stars are already clicking. Schwarber and Bryce Harper have combined for nine home runs, providing the kind of early-season power surge the lineup is built around.
Aaron Nola gets the ball tonight and has been steady through three starts, posting a 3.63 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while allowing three runs or fewer each time out. He’s also dominated the Cubs historically, holding them to a .199 average and .599 OPS with 52 strikeouts in 186 at-bats.
After dropping back-to-back series to the Giants and Diamondbacks, the Phillies are in a strong position to secure a series win at home.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Cubs vs. Phillies?
Busch, Crow-Armstrong and Bregman will eventually find their rhythm, but they’re not there yet. Right now, the Phillies have the edge with their top bats producing and Nola’s track record against this lineup.
With the game in Philadelphia and the weather favouring hitters, expect another solid offensive showing, but one that ultimately sees the home side prevail 7-4.
Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 (+146)
CHC
PHI