It’s time for the playoffs and tonight, the final game in the quartet of games will feature a Wild Card Series rematch from last season, with the Chicago Cubs (89-73) and the San Diego Padres (91-71) linking up again in the opener of their best-of-three series from Petco Park.

The Padres used a September surge to vault ahead of the Cubs in the Wild Card standings, and the entirety of this three-game series will be played on the West Coast. Meanwhile, the Cubs are losers of four of the last six games, scuffling a bit heading into this series.

Before tonight’s first pitch between the Cubs and Padres, let’s run down the betting angles, review both teams and then make a prediction for Game 1.

MLB Betting Odds and Trends

The Padres are modest -126 favourites at home on the MLB odds board, which tells you the market may not respect the Cubs enough. They have a lineup that not only scored the most runs in baseball and led the Majors in ISO, but also took five of six regular-season meetings between these two ballclubs over the regular season. With the game total sitting at 7.0 runs, don’t be surprised if Game 1 has some scoring, especially if either bullpen has to cover meaningful innings in a short series.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have the seventh-best record in all of baseball and will play this Wild Card Series on the West Coast. The Cubs, MLB’s best offence, have all the productive bats a team could want, ranging from Seiya Suzuki (.841 OPS) to Alex Bregman (.819 OPS) and Michael Conforto (.800 OPS). But they live and die by the prodigious bat of likely NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong. And why wouldn’t they? Crow-Armstrong has been one of the best in baseball this season with his .943 OPS,.280/.372/.570 triple slash, with 45 HR, 107 RBI, and 41 stolen bases to boot.

That’s a 40-40 season, folks. If the Cubs are going to move on in the playoffs, they’re going to need PCA to be a massive part of it.

San Diego Padres

The Padres have been solid this season, as they’re 15th in runs scored, 18th in OPS, and third in steals. However, the last two months have the Padres at a league-best 41-19 record, with the best offence in Major League Baseball in the month of September. They’re riding their stars like Fernando Tatis Jr., with 25 HR, 83 RBI, 38 SB, and an .828 OPS, as well as Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill. They also get Gavin Sheets back and there is the small matter of a bounce back campaign from Ty France, who leads the team in WAR (4.5) and OPS (.865), while putting up close to a .295 season

Who Will Win Cubs vs. Padres?

For the visiting Cubs, Matthew Boyd gets the ball looking to replicate last year’s Game 1, when he limited the Padres to just one run over 4 ⅓ innings in a series-opening win at Wrigley Field. This season, Boyd faced San Diego twice, with mixed results, giving up eight earned runs in nine innings across two uneven starts.

The Padres counter with Michael King, who has been excellent all season with a 3.21 ERA and a 12-10 record. King did not face the Cubs this season, but as the Padres’ unquestioned top starter, he’ll get the nod and will have the home fans backing him tonight.

This game should be a great one with obviously high stakes for both teams, but we are going with the game total tonight, as this Wild Card clash is very close with both offences in peak performance heading into this series. But a 7.0-run game total is not a lot for this pair of clubs to combine for, so we’ll take the over.

CUBS

Away

5

PADRES

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