Toronto Blue Jays vs. Colorado Rockies: Odds, Prediction
Toronto is a -205 favourite on the MLB odds behind lefty Eric Lauer with a total of 11.5 runs.
Betting Analysis
There is simply no excuse for the Blue Jays not to win at least two of three games in Denver to start this week against the MLB-worst Colorado Rockies because then the Jays likely are underdogs in every game this weekend at the Los Angeles Dodgers, the defending World Series champions and current betting favourites. Have to win a series like this if you hope to win the AL East.
While Colorado is a putrid 16-39 at home this season, there’s no doubt the club has been a bit more competitive there than away (14-42) even if the records aren’t all that different. The team has had three series at Coors Field since the break and two of three in each (vs. Minnesota, St. Louis and Pittsburgh). Obviously, it’s a major, major adjustment for visiting teams playing in the thin air of Denver.
Will hitting/pitching splits aren’t quite as drastic for Rockies home games as they were many years ago — thanks in part to balls kept in humidors to counteract the effects of the altitude and dry climate on the balls – it’s still very hitter friendly. Don’t believe me? On Saturday, the Rockies found themselves trailing 9-0 in the bottom of the first vs. the Pirates … only to win 17-16.
Toronto took two of three vs. Colorado last year and won two of three in Denver in its last visit in 2023.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays’ recent struggles continued in a 7-4 home loss in 10 innings to Kansas City on Sunday, Toronto’s sixth loss in the past eight. The lead in the AL East is down to three over surging Boston and 4.5 over the Yankees. New York is in a massive funk as well but should get Aaron Judge back by Wednesday, so the Bombers should turn things around then.
The Jays’ bullpen isn’t in the best shape tonight after going extras on Sunday. But All-Star catcher Alejandro Kirk was reinstated from the seven-day injured list Sunday.
Veteran lefty Eric Lauer (6-2, 2.68 ERA), probably the MVP of the entire pitching staff so far, takes the mound Monday. He took a no-decision last Tuesday in Baltimore, allowing two runs and five hits over five innings. That’s about a typical Lauer line in 2025. The 30-year-old has not allowed more than three earned all season in 17 appearances (11 starts) and more than two earned only twice.
Thing is, Lauer could lose his rotation spot to trade acquisition Shane Bieber once Bieber is off rehab because Lauer can pitch out of the bullpen. Unless Toronto wants to go a six-man rotation, but injuries always happen too, so things may work themselves out in that regard.
Lauer spent a lot of time in the National League so he has made 12 career starts vs. the Rockies and is a brutal 1-6 with a 7.58 ERA. Most of those issues came at Coors Field, where Lauer is 0-6 with a 12.73 ERA in seven starts. Toronto is 9-1 in its past 10 games vs. NL West foes.
Colorado Rockies
Colorado certainly got worse ahead of the recent trade deadline in sending away one of its best regulars in third baseman Ryan McMahon along with relievers Tyler Kinley and Jake Bird.
The Rockies are light years from playoff contention, so they will load up on prospects when and where possible from other teams. The problem is that there’s not much worth trading this offseason other than catcher Hunter Goodwin.
Remember former NL MVP Kris Bryant? The former Cubs third sacker signed a huge deal with the team ahead of the 2022 season, and it has been one of the biggest disasters in free-agent history. Bryant (batting .154) has been limited to 11 games in 2025 and not since April. His career might be over with a degenerative disk disease.
Closer Seth Halvorsen landed on the 15-day IL on Sunday and also might be done for 2025.
Per usual, the Colorado rotation is one of the worst in the sport, but a decent surprise has been 27-year-old rookie Tanner Gordon (2-3, 4.85 ERA), who goes Monday for his sixth start of the year (he pitched some in 2024 but retained rookie status).
Gordon’s ERA had been 3.13 until allowing six earned and eight hits over three innings last Tuesday in Cleveland. He hasn’t faced the Jays. The over is 5-1 in Colorado’s past six.
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