Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Odds, Prediction
Wednesday brings us Game three of four in this AL East clash between the Blue Jays and Rays. Toronto (89-62) sits atop the division, riding a six-game winning streak, while Tampa Bay (73-78) has dropped four of its last five and is on the brink of playoff elimination.
First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. The Jays have already secured a series split after taking the first two games, 2-1 in 11 innings and 6-5 yesterday.
Toronto is a -125 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total pegged at 7.5.
Betting Analysis
The Blue Jays have won seven of their last eight overall and are fourth in the MLB in road OPS (.747). They are also baseball’s best team against left-handed pitching, leading the league with a .270 batting average and ranking third in OPS (.766).
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, owns a .747 OPS at home (eighth in MLB), but has lost momentum down the stretch.
Toronto is 3-5 against the Rays this year, though they are in position to even the season series with two more wins tonight and tomorrow.
The Blue Jays are -125 on the moneyline and +140 on the -1.5 run line, compared to the Rays’ +105 moneyline price and -170 on the +1.5 run line. The run total sits at 7.5.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays continue to surge at the right time, widening their division lead to five games. They will again be without star shortstop Bo Bichette, sidelined until at least the end of the regular season, but the offence has been buoyed by depth. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Tyler Heineman both carry OPS figures above 1.000 against left-handers, while George Springer, Ty France, and Ernie Clement are all north of .850.
Kevin Gausman (10-10, 3.44 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) takes the ball, and although the Rays hit him hard in June (six runs on 10 hits), he has pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA since July, leaning on his changeup that neutralizes left-handed bats.
Tampa Bay Rays
Rookie left-hander Ian Seymour (3-2, 3.16 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) makes his fourth career start after beginning the season in the bullpen. The Jays have never faced him, but the matchup is tough given Toronto’s dominance against lefties.
Offensively, the Rays have been stronger against right-handed pitching, with a .739 OPS, and they tagged Gausman earlier this year. Still, Tampa’s recent slump has dimmed their postseason hopes, leaving motivation thin outside of standout seasons from Junior Caminero (44 HR, 108 RBI) and Yandy Díaz (.296 average, 24 HR, 80 RBI and .837 OPS).
The Rays remain a tough out at home, but they’ve lost their edge as September winds down.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Blue Jays vs. Rays?
The Jays have the right matchup here. Their track record against lefties and Seymour’s inexperience tilt the edge toward Toronto, especially against a bullpen already overworked in this series. Gausman should fare better this time against a Rays team struggling for consistency, and Toronto’s bats are likely to strike early as they did yesterday with four runs in the opening two innings. My best bets are Blue Jays -1.5 (+140) and Over 7.5 (-110).
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