Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: Odds, Prediction
The O’s are -165 favourites to win on the MLB odds behind former NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes.
Betting Analysis
It’s the first meeting of the season between these division rivals. They will see each other one more series before the All-Star break from June 3-6 at Rogers Centre and then a couple of series’ after. The Orioles are the defending AL East champions as they reached the playoffs last year for the first time since 2016 but then were summarily swept out in the ALDS by eventual World Series champion Texas.
I personally believe the Orioles win not just the division title again but their first AL pennant since their last World Series title in 1983. They are absolutely loaded offensively and have a true ace in former NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes, who is on the mound for Monday’s opener. He was acquired this offseason from Milwaukee via trade.
In previous years, the Orioles wouldn’t add a bunch of salary midseason if they needed a big piece via trade, but that shouldn’t be a case going forward with the team sold not too long ago to billionaire and Baltimore native David Rubenstein. The O’s have so many good young position players they could trade if need be that very few players in baseball would be off limits.
Toronto was just 3-10 vs. the Orioles last year and 2-4 in Baltimore.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto lost two of three at home to Minnesota over the weekend capped by a 5-1 defeat on Sunday, but that Alek Manoah pitched very well was a huge bright spot otherwise. There was also one of the more athletic plays we’ve seen in the majors this season when Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. jumped to snag a line drive by Twins hitter Carlos Correa and transitioned into a cartwheel trying to tag the runner at first base (missed the tag, but still). Outfielder Kevin Kiermaier missed his third straight game with an illness. George Springer wasn’t able to start Friday or Saturday due to illness but did Sunday and went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. He is down to a .200 average and .273 OBP, and it might be time to pull Springer from hitting leadoff.
It’s righty Jose Berrios (4-3, 2.85) on the mound Monday. He has been terrific for the most part but comes off his worst outing of the year, allowing eight runs and seven hits over 3.2 innings off a loss in Philadelphia. That’s three straight losses for Berrios, but he’s 10-1 with a 2.98 ERA in 14 career starts vs. the Orioles. The Jays are 5-12 in their past 17.
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore (26-13) leads the AL East by a half game over the New York Yankees. I don’t give any other team in the division a chance of winning it. The Orioles had a three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 9-2 home loss to Arizona, but the good thing from that is that Baltimore was able to avoid using any high-leverage relievers so they should all be available today. Outfielder Colton Cowser is batting .257 with six homers and 20 RBIs and is the +120 favourite for AL Rookie of the Year.
Right-hander Corbin Burnes is +400 for the AL Cy Young and on the hill Monday. Burnes (3-2, 2.83 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) hasn’t personally won any of his past three outings despite pitching well as the O’s combined to score two runs in them and lost each. Burnes hasn’t allowed more than three earned yet. This will be his second career start vs. Toronto and on the first on June 25, 2022 in Milwaukee, he surrendering three runs on five hits with nine strikeouts in 7.2 innings. Justin Turner has seen him the most of any Toronto batter (just not with the Jays at the time) and is 3-for-12 with a double and homer. The Orioles are 10-4 in their past 14 at home.
TOR
BAL