Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Game 5: ALCS Odds, Prediction
Toronto is a very slight favourite on the MLB odds behind Kevin Gausman with a total of 7 runs.
Jays vs. Mariners Betting Analysis
Well hasn’t this ALCS fun? Sure, both fanbases would have preferred a sweep, but the road team going 4-0 thus far this is so much better for baseball, especially with the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers looking like they will sweep out the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday night and await the winner of this series. Just to give you an idea of what the books are thinking entering Friday, L.A. is the -175 favorite to win it all, with Seattle at +330, Toronto +390 and Milwaukee +4000.
Interesting that Seattle is still a -115 favourite in this series with the Blue Jays at -105 even though momentum obviously has completely changed and Toronto gets the next two (one if necessary) at home. Are you aware this is only the third LCS round this century to feature at least two teams that had never won a World Series: That’s Seattle and Milwaukee. We think both droughts continue.
When a seven-game series is tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 has gone on to win the series 46 of 67 times (68.7 per cent), including 15 of 21 times (71.4 per cent) in the LCS round and six of eight times (75.0 per cent) in the ALCS. Almost amazingly, the road team has now won 15 of the last 18 games in ALCS play.
Toronto Blue Jays
There have been only two MLB playoff series in history where the road team won all seven games, and Toronto pitcher Max Scherzer was a part of both: Washington in the 2019 World Series (vs. Houston) and Texas in the 2023 ALCS (vs. Houston again). Toronto’s 8-2 win on Thursday thanks in part to Scherzer marked the first game in the series where neither team scored in the first inning and only the second time it didn’t happen in six all-time playoff meetings. Vladimir Guerrero homered in the seventh inning for his fifth dinger of these playoffs, breaking a tie with José Bautista (2015) for most in a single post-season in Blue Jays history. Guerrero was 0-for-7 in the first two games and now can’t be gotten out.
It’s Kevin Gausman on the hill tonight, but at this point basically everybody other than Scherzer will be available with a day off coming. Gausman has had a generally good but inconsistent season. He was good in the Wild-Card Round in beating the Yankees but lost Game 1 of this series, allowing two runs over 5.2 innings. Gausman hasn’t topped 76 pitches in his two playoff starts and barring domination, will not Friday, either. Playoff baseball is simply different when it comes to pitching and early hooks.
Seattle Mariners
The City of Seattle was electric entering Game 3 with the franchise seemingly on the way to the first World Series title ever. All that work stealing home-field advantage is gone. There have definitely been questions the past two games on whether manager Dan Wilson left his starting pitcher in too long. And neither pitched all that long, so the Seattle bullpen is not in great shape. But, again, day off up next and at this point, just about everyone is available in what will be the Mariners’ final home game of 2025 if they don’t win their first pennant.
Bryce Miller is the scheduled Game 5 starter, but that might be in name only with the excellent Bryan Woo waiting. Miller is a fine pitcher but had a disappointing and injury-plagued season. He allowed a leadoff homer to George Springer in the bottom of the first of Game 1 of this series, but that was the only run Miller allowed and just one more hit over six in getting the victory. Woo was 15-7 with a 2.94 ERA during the season but hasn’t pitched since Sept. 19 due to pectoral inflammation. So he’s not going a lot of innings in relief, but he almost surely will be used. I just can’t see the Mariners losing all three at home, so they win in a lower-scoring game – which we haven’t seen since Game 1.
TOR
SEA