Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: Odds, Prediction
The Blue Jays make their lone visit of the year to defending American League champion Houston this weekend. The Astros opened as -165 favourites to win on the MLB odds for Friday’s opener.
Betting Analysis
Houston has been easily the most successful American League team over the past few seasons as the Astros reached the AL Championship Series in the last five years and the World Series three times in that span, winning it in 2017 (while cheating by stealing signs) and losing in 2019 and in 2021.
This year’s team isn’t quite as good after losing All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa in free agency in the off-season to the Minnesota Twins. In addition, arguably the best pitcher in the rotation, Lance McCullers, will not pitch in the majors before June due to suffering a forearm injury in Game 4 of the 2021 ALDS. Those injuries can lead to Tommy John surgery, but that’s not on the table right now.
The Astros won four of six meetings vs. the Blue Jays last season and two of three at Minute Maid Park.
Toronto Blue Jays
Will former Astros World Series MVP, and current Blue Jay, George Springer play Friday? He took a pitch off the forearm on Wednesday in Boston and got Thursday off, but X-rays were negative. Teoscar Hernandez hit .318 with a homer and three RBIs last year vs. the Astros but is on the injured list. Catcher Danny Jansen batted .308 with two solo homers against Houston, but he’s on the injured list as well. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was 4-for-20 in the series with a homer. Lourdes Gurriel just 2-for-20.
Veteran right-hander Ross Stripling (0-0, 3.00) is scheduled to start on the mound – he likely will ping-pong back-and-forth from the bullpen all season. Stripling’s first two outings this season were in relief, but he started last Friday vs. Oakland and shut out the A’s on two hits over four innings. He has an excellent 1.00 WHIP in six total innings. Stripling started twice against Houston last year and was 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA. The Astros hit .371 off of him. Aledmys Diaz has had the most success off Stripling, going 3-for-7 with two doubles and a homer. The Jays are 8-2 in their past 10 vs. the AL West.
Houston Astros
Former AL MVP and second baseman Jose Altuve will miss the series as he’s on the injured list. He suffered a minor hamstring strain Monday. The seven-time All-Star and three-time AL batting champion is off to a slow start, hitting .167 with a homer and three RBIs. Closer Ryan Pressly is on the injured list and can’t be activated until Sunday.
It’s two-time Cy Young winner and former AL MVP Justin Verlander (1-1, 0.69 ERA) on the mound for the opener. He missed the 2021 season due to Tommy John surgery but looks in prime form at age 39 in the early going with 15 strikeouts and just six hits allowed in 13 innings. This will be his first home game of the season. Blue Jays outfielder and former Astro Springer is 5-for-13 in his career with a homer against his former teammate. Perhaps Matt Chapman gets this game off as he’s 1-for-18 with nine Ks off Verlander. The Astros are 5-2 in their past seven vs. the AL East.
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