Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
The defending American League champion Blue Jays open a highly anticipated season on Friday night by welcoming the Athletics for the first of a three-game set. Behind Kevin Gausman, Toronto is a -180 favourite on the MLB odds for the opener with a total of 9.5.
Betting Analysis
It will be a special night Friday at Rogers Centre with the Blue Jays raising their first American League pennant banner in decades. It was oh-so close to a World Series banner with Toronto of course losing an epic Game 7 of the 2025 Fall Classic to the Los Angeles Dodgers, 5-4 in 11 innings on Nov. 1 in the last game that counted at Rogers Centre.
To repeat for the pennant, Toronto opens as a +700 third-favourite behind the New York Yankees (+450) and Seattle (+500) – the two teams the Blue Jays beat in the 2025 AL playoffs. To repeat in the AL East, which looks much tougher this year with Tampa Bay and Baltimore improved, the Jays are +310 third-favourites behind the Yankees (+170) and Boston (+280). I don’t expect a repeat.
The Athletics play Year 2 in their temporary city home of Sacramento as the club awaits construction on its new ballpark in its new home of Las Vegas for the 2028 season. The still-building Athletics have finished with a losing record four straight season and have an over-under total of 75.5 this year, but there are some really good young pieces led by reigning AL Rookie of the Year and first baseman Nick Kurtz and shortstop Jacob Wilson, who finished second in the 2025 voting.
Toronto hasn’t lost a season series to the Athletics since 2018 and took five of seven last year, including all four at Rogers Centre.
Athletics
The Athletics were 41-34 with a plus-56 run differential over the final three months of the 2025 regular season, but penny-pinching owner John Fisher didn’t put much back into the club in the off-season in terms of additions – the team did sign a few younger guys to long-term deals — as Wilson is largely waiting for his cash windfall with the move to Las Vegas in a couple of years. Likely the biggest addition was a trade for Mets second baseman and former batting champion Jeff McNeil. He hit .243 with 12 homers in 122 games last year.
Veteran righty Luis Severino gets the Opening Day call. He was 8-11 with a 4.54 ERA in 29 starts in 2025. Severino will become the first pitcher to start back-to-back Opening Days for the A’s since Kendall Graveman (2017-18) as Severino took a no-decision in Seattle to open the 2025 campaign despite six scoreless innings. The 32-year-old was significantly better outside of hitter-friendly Sacramento last season, going 6-2 with a 3.02 ERA in 14 road starts. He lost his lone start vs. the Jays, which came in California with Severino allowing five runs (one earned) and seven hits in 4.2 innings.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays will look a bit different than the 2025 club with starting pitcher Chris Bassitt and shortstop Bo Bichette among those gone, and starting pitcher Dylan Cease, reliever Tyler Rogers, third baseman Kazuma Okamoto and outfielder Jesus Sanchez among the new arrivals. Cease slots in as the No. 2 starter behind Kevin Gausman and will pitch Saturday.
Toronto won the bidding for Japan’s Okamoto, signing him to a four-year $60 million (U.S.) deal. He was limited to 69 games last year in Nippon Professional Baseball but hit .327 with a .416 on-base percentage, .598 slugging percentage, 1.014 OPS, 15 home runs and 49 RBIs. Okamoto also had six consecutive seasons of at least 30 home runs with a peak of 41 in 2023 and is +600 for AL Rookie of the Year. Might not be a bad wager.
Gausman will make his third career Opening Day start and first with the Jays. The 35-year-old righty was 10-11 with a 3.59 ERA and 189 strikeouts over 32 regular-season starts in 2025 and then very good in the playoffs. But Gausman didn’t have much success in his two RS starts vs. the Athletics, going 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA and .325 batting average against.
ATH
TOR