Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
Toronto is -155 on the MLB odds with a total of 8.5 runs.
Betting Analysis
If Toronto holds on and wins the AL East (-195 favourite) and finishes with one of the two best records in the Junior Circuit, and those are both likely as of today, then it would avoid the Wild-Card Series and advance straight to the ALDS.
Houston is two games up on Seattle in the AL West and a -175 favourite to win the division a fifth straight season. However, the Astros are well back of Toronto and AL Central runaway leader Detroit in the overall American League standings. So Houston most likely hosts a Wild-Card Series against the No. 6 seed. That would currently be Seattle.
The Blue Jays should be plenty motivated for this series after getting demolished in a three-game sweep in Houston from April 21-23, outscored a combined 15-2. It was the Astros’ first sweep anywhere vs. Toronto since a four-game series in Houston on May 14-17, 2015. One key guy that Houston had back in that earlier series but doesn’t now due to injury is All-Star closer Josh Hader. He’s out until the playoffs with shoulder issues.
Houston won three of four at Rogers Centre last season.
Houston Astros
Houston got a regular back over the weekend when centre fielder Jake Meyers was reinstated from the injured list Saturday. He had been out since July 9 with a right calf strain. The team is still hoping get All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes (hamstring) back at the end of the regular season.
The Astros made a decision on Sunday for their game at rival Texas that on paper appears to hugely benefit Toronto in this game as they moved up co-ace Framber Valdez to start there instead of Tuesday’s series opener at Rogers Centre. Valdez pitched well, but Houston lost for the sixth time in nine games.
So it will be righty Luis Garcia (1-0, 4.50 ERA) in this one. The 28-year-old was a very good starter from 2021-22 but then major injury hit (Tommy John surgery), and he made only six starts in 2023 and none last year. Garcia finally returned the Show on Sept. 1 vs. the Angels and had a quality start of six innings and three runs allowed.
The Venezuelan is 2-1 with a 4.88 ERA in four career starts vs. Toronto. George Springer has had success off him at 3-for-7 with a double and two solo homers. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 1-for-11 off Garcia with five Ks.
The Astros are 1-4 in their past five Tuesday games.
Toronto Blue Jays
This marks the second-to-last homestand of the season for the Blue Jays, whose offence went quiet in the in final two games at Yankee Stadium over the weekend in managing just four total runs in back-to-back losses. It certainly wasn’t on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for either of those losses as he had two hits in each, eight in the New York series overall and is now slashing .560/.607/.920 in 25 at-bats this month and just one strikeout.
Original projections had Toronto starting Jose Berrios on the mound Tuesday but instead it will be trade acquisition and former AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. The 30-year-old is 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA in three starts since coming over from Cleveland and likely won’t be a member of the Blue Jays long because he’s expected to decline his $16 million player option for 2026 and hit free agency.
Bieber was good in his first two outings but roughed up in Cincinnati last Wednesday for five runs and six hits over six innings, but that’s a hitter’s park. And Bieber still got the win. He is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts. Future Hall of Famer Jose Altuve is 3-for-6 off him with a double. Carlos Correa is 4-for-14 with a homer and five Ks.
Toronto is 16-4 in its past 20 games vs. the AL West.
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