Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
Friday begins the final series of the regular season between the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays, with the Jays opening as slight home favourites to win Game 1 on the MLB odds.
Betting Analysis
If these teams play again, it won’t be until October in the playoffs but that’s extremely possible, especially with the additional wild-card team. Although, Houston has been a moderate disappointment so far. Maybe the team’s most talented pitcher, Lance McCullers Jr., is out until probably mid-June after being hurt in the 2021 playoffs. The Astros have dealt with a few other key injuries as well.
Last weekend in Houston, the Blue Jays took two of three and could have swept but closer Jordan Romano allowed a walk-off two-run homer to Astros rookie Jeremy Pena in the bottom of the 10th inning of the finale. Pena is the club’s new everyday shortstop after All-Star Carlos Correa left in free agency.
Last season, the Jays were 1-2 at home vs. Houston but “home” was Buffalo, NY.
Houston Astros
The Astros’ 218-151 road record since 2017 is tops in the AL in that span. They are 7-0 overall this season when scoring four or more runs and 9-2 when scoring first. Second baseman and former AL MVP and batting champion Jose Altuve hasn’t played since April 18 due to a hamstring injury but is eligible to be activated Friday and it sounds like he will be activated. Starting on the mound Friday is scheduled to be right-hander Jose Urquidy (1-1, 5.52). He pitched last Saturday vs. the Jays and allowed two runs over 5.2 innings of a no-decision with three strikeouts and a walk. Former Astro and current Blue Jay George Springer led off the game with a homer vs. Urquidy. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 4-for-9 career off him with a homer and Bo Bichette 3-for-9 with a solo shot. Matt Chapman is just 1-for-9 with five Ks. Urquidy is 1-1 with a 5.29 ERA in three career starts vs. the Jays. Houston is 6-14 in its past 20 as an underdog.
Toronto Blue Jays
Guerrero sat out for the first time this season on Thursday vs. Boston after fouling a ball off his foot Wednesday. X-rays came back negative but obviously something to monitor if he can start Friday. Perhaps he will have to play at DH if he does. Toronto starts lefty Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 3.75 ERA) on the mound in the opener – the bullpen better be ready because Kikuchi has lasted five innings just once in the early going. He took a no-decision last Sunday in Houston in allowing four runs (two earned) over 3.2 innings with five walks and four strikeouts. Kikuchi’s 10 walks in 12 innings are a major red flag. He also had control problems last year while with the Mariners. Because he spent the past few years in the AL West, plenty of Astros have several at-bats against him. Yordan Alvarez is 6-for-20 with two doubles and two homers off him. Yuli Gurriel 5-for-21 with two homers. Michael Brantley just 2-for-18 and Kyle Tucker 0-for-10. Toronto is 6-1 in its past seven in Game 1 of a series.
HOU
TOR