2024 Home Run Derby Odds, Prediction: Pete Alonso aiming for third title

The crown jewell of the MLB All-Star festivities is the Home Run Derby, scheduled for Monday, July 15 at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Last year’s winner, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., won’t defend his title, but another former champion in two-time winner Pete Alonso is taking another shot at the title.

Let’s take a look at the favourites to win the 2024 Home Run Derby.

2024 Home Run Derby odds

Pete Alonso (+310)

Pete Alonso is an easy favourite heading into the 2024 Home Run Derby. The Mets slugger has won two of the last four events and his 195 career home runs at the derby is the most all-time.

Alonso has 18 home runs this season and he’s proven in the past that he takes his game to another level at the Home Run Derby. One of the most aggressive competitors, Alonso has a chance to match Ken Griffey Jr.’s record of three career Home Run Derby wins.

Marcell Ozuna (+375)

Marcell Ozuna has been one of the best power hitters in baseball this season. His 26 home runs is fourth-most in the majors and his 77 RBIs ranked second. Strikeouts are his only real flaw, but that doesn’t matter in the Derby.

The underlying stats also back Ozuna. The Braves left-fielder is in the 98th percentile in both hard-hit rate and barrel percentage, and his average home run distance is second among Derby participants behind only Bobby Whitt Jr.

Adolis Garcia (+400)

Rangers right-fielder Adolis Garcia harnessed his raw power to an incredible start to the season, smashing eight home runs with a .925 OPS in the month of April. Things haven’t gone smoothly since then, however, as he has a brutal .591 OPS in his last 59 games.

At +400, Garcia is a bit rich for my taste, but he’s shown this year he can be dominant when he finds his rhythm.

Value pick

Teoscar Hernandez (+1000)

A Blue Jays hitter won the Derby last year, so why not bet on a former Toronto player to win in 2024?

Dodgers left-fielder Teoscar Hernandez, who has 19 home runs this season, is well on his way to setting a career-high in homers and he ranks second on L.A. behind Shoehei Ohtani. Hernandez announced he’s in the Derby to win when he was mic’d up in a game against the Phillies last week and at +1000, he provides a solid payout.

Prediction

Give me Atlanta’s Marcell Ozuna at +375. He’s built for the Derby with elite swing mechanics that allow him to smash the ball when he makes contact.

New format

The format is changed for the 2024 Home Run Derby. Instead of a head-to-head bracket style challenge, all eight hitters will compete against each other in the first round. The top four will advance to the semifinals, with the seeding determined by first-round performance.

The pitch limit will be 40 pitches in the first two rounds and 27 pitches in the final.

Bonus pitch time will now be a bonus pitch period with hitters continuing until they receive three outs. During the bonus pitch period, an extra out will be granted for each home run over 425 feet.

For a more info on the Home Run Derby, make sure to check out our bet guide:

How Does the Home Run Derby Work?

Last 10 Home Run Derby winners

Year	Winner	Team
2023	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Toronto Blue Jays
2022	Juan Soto	Washington Nationals
2021	Pete Alonso	New York Mets
2020	Cancelled - COVID	N/A
2019	Pete Alonso	New York Mets
2018	Bryce Harper	Washington Nationals
2017	Aaron Judge	New York Yankees
2016	Giancarlo Stanton	Miami Marlins
2015	Todd Frazier	Cincinnati Reds
2014	Yoenis Cespedes	Oakland Athletics