Ricky Rothstein
May 3, 2014

Wicked Strong Best Bet at the Kentucky Derby!

Ricky Rothstein marks your card for the 140th Kentucky Derby!

Only five favorites have won the Run for the Roses since 2000, and some of those were favorites by default, rather than invested with the faith and dollars of the betting public.

California Chrome, by contrast, is a true favorite Not only has he won his prep races but he’s dominated them – he won the San Filipe Stakes by seven lengths and the Santa Anita Derby by five. Not only that, but he’s a great story too, being trained by the 77-year-old Art Sherman, who’s as old school as they get.

Competition comes from Danza, the winner of the Arkansas Derby and one of four horses in this year’s Derby trained by Todd Pletcher. Although a four-time winner of the Eclipse Award for Trainer of the Year, Pletcher has only had one Derby winner, Super Saver in 2010. Can Danza make it two? When Hoppertunity was scratched on Thursday, money started edging Danza’s way.

The other second favorite is Wicked Strong, the Wood Memorial winner and a horse that has the two things you need to win the Kentucky Derby – blinding pace combined with the stamina to cover the one-and-a-quarter mile track. Wicked Strong will need even more than usual on Saturday as he’s drawn the 19 Post, meaning he has more ground to cover if he’s to win.

Bet Now on the Kentucky Derby!

The real value bet at the Derby will be Ride On Curlin at 24/1. Ride on Curlin came a poor second to Danza at Arkansas but his jockey is exceptional – Calvin Borel has won three of the last seven Kentucky Derbies and, if the horse has a chance at the quarter-pole, Borel is a pilot who can find a way to win.

And if Borel can’t, maybe Rosie Napravnik can. A woman has never won the Kentucky Derby but Napravnik came awfully close last year when she came fifth on Mylute. She’s on Vicar’s In Trouble this year but has drawn the 1 Post, giving her the opposite problem to Wicked Strong. If she doesn’t get out of the gate fast – really, really fast – she’ll be squeezed out by the fence on her left and the other nineteen horses on her right.

California Chrome is a deserving favorite and has been the fastest horse this year, but his pedigree leaves room for doubt. Wicked Strong ticks too many boxes to be ignored, while Calvin Borel demands respect always. So, Ricky’s Roses Trifecta looks like: