Can Super Saver Do It Again at the Preakness?

Frank Doyle wonders if Super Saver can continue his Triple Crown quest at the Preakness Stakes this weekend.

It’s surprising what winning the Kentucky Derby can do for a horse. Super Saver arrived at Louisville as just another pony with a crazy dream – now he’s been touted as a possible successor to Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Secretariat and even the legendary War Admiral of the 1930s. All those horses won the storied Triple Crown of the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes, and racing hasn’t had a Triple Crown winner in over thirty years.

The big question at Pimlico is if Super Saver can run as well on dry land as he did on the mud in Kentucky. As you can see from the picture, the mud played a huge role in this year’s Derby, but the forecast for Saturday at Baltimore has a zero per cent chance of precipitation.

Is this good news for Lookin at Lucky? Never has a horse’s stock fallen so badly as it has for Bob Baffert’s one-time Kentucky Derby favorite. Lookin at Lucky was one of the leading three year olds in the USA in the spring but a third place finish at Santa Anita and an embarrassing sixth at Churchill Downs has seen a lot of faith lost in the colt as a betting prospect.

There’s an interesting subplot going with regard to Lookin at Lucky and his jockey. Garrett Gomez got the blame for two bad trips on Lookin at Lucky at Santa Anita and Churchill Downs and now Gomez won’t ride the colt at Pimlico – Bob Baffert has given the ride to Martin Garcia instead.

But Gomez will still be at Pimlico because D Wayne Lucas has asked Gomez to ride Dublin instead. Dublin has yet to win a race in 2010 but he was sired by Afleet Alex, who won the Preakness in 2005. How sweet would it be for Gomez to catch Lookin at Lucky in the final stretch?

Sweet, but not all that likely. Right now the 2010 Preakness Stakes seems to be contest between Super Saver trying to consolidate his Derby victory and Lookin at Lucky trying to make amends for his loss.

If you’re looking for an outsider, there’s been some talk of Caracortado, a Californian horse that is coming to Maryland without going to the Derby at all. The big disadvantage that Carcortado will suffer is that Pimlico will be his first time running on dirt, and that may count against him.

XXI: Gabriel Morency breaks down the weekend’s sporting action

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geZeHvqtuv8[/youtube]