Kentucky Derby Odds: 2016 Picks and Predictions

The 142nd Kentucky Derby takes place this Saturday, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. 20 horses will be competing in the Run for the Roses, all of them hoping to take the same path as last year’s winner American Pharoah, who broke a 37-year drought on horses winning the Triple Crown. All eyes will be on the undefeated and odds favorite Nyquist, who is currently leading the betting odds to win the Race to the Roses. He has fierce competition though, with Exaggerator, Mohaymen and Gun Runner all showing excellent odds to win this year’s Derby race, also known as the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Post positions for the 2016 Kentucky Derby were drawn late Wednesday afternoon as part of the final preparations for Saturday’s race. The favorite, Nyquist, was given post number #13. Post #1 is considered the worst position on such a large track with so many horses on the field, as it pins the horses to the inside railing when they’re coming out of the gate. That spot went to Trojan Nation, who was already a long shot, and has yet to win a race. Along with Trojan Nation, the other extreme long shot is Oscar Nominated, whose owners paid an additional $200,000 to get him into the race, which increased the Derby purse to $2,391,600 if all 20 horses start. The winner would receive $1,631,000.

Below, we will give a quick introduction to each horse, as well as list their current odds to win, their post position and their trainers. To bet on this race, visit our Kentucky Derby 2016 betting page, where you’ll find updated odds and betting options.

Kentucky Derby Contenders

Nyquist

Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Post Position: 13th

Nyquist is owned by Paul Reddam, a fan of the Detroit Red Wings who named the horse for Gustav Nyquist, a right winger for the Red Wings. Nyquist won the Breeder’s Cup last November, and has been the odds favorite to win the Derby this year since then. He’s bringing a 7-0 record to Churchill Downs, and is the son of Uncle Mo, who also won each of his races during his two year career. He is the odds frontrunner, currently listed at 89/30.

Exaggerator

Trainer: J. Keith Desormeaux
Post Position: 11th

Exaggerator has three wins in eight career races and he’s won over $1 million. He has lost to Nyquist three times, including last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His jockey Kent Desormeaux has three Derby victories to his name, the most recent being a win with Big Brown in 2008. Exaggerator and Mohaymen both currently have their odds to win listed at 8/1.

Mohaymen

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Post Position: 14th

Mohaymen’s blood lines include Triple Crown winners Secretariat and Seattle Slew. He was on a five win streak when he was beaten by Nyquist at the Florida Derby. Before losing to Nyquist, Mohaymen was considered a favorite to win the Derby this year. Mohaymen is at 8/1 to win the Derby this year.

Gun Runner

Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Post Position: 5th

Gun Runner, who has won four of his five career starts, also has the second-highest earnings of $1.6 million among Kentucky Derby contenders this year. Gun Runner was sired by the Argentinian stallion Candy Ride, who was unbeaten during his career. Current odds list Gun Runner at 10/1.

Destin

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Post Position: 9th

After winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes in February, Destin set a track record in the Tampa Bay Derby in March. Destin is another son of Giant’s Causeway, and his mother was Dream of Summer who was the daughter of Siberian Summer, herself a Grade 1 winner. Destin is also listed at 10/1.

Brody’s Cause

Trainer: Dale Romans
Post Position: 19th

Brody’s Cause is a multiple Grade I-winning son of Giant’s Causeway, a three time champion sire. He most recently won at Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes. He’s one of the larger horses in the Derby, and is the kind of horse that starts out slower but picks up speed going into the far turn. Brody’s Cause currently is listed at 12/1.

Mor Spirit

Trainer: Bob Baffert
Post Position: 17th

Bob Baffert has four Derby victories, including last year with American Pharoah. Another Hall of Famer, Gary Stevens, will ride Mor Spirit. Mor spirit is the son of Eskenderya, who was the son of Giant’s Causeway, who was the son of Storm Cat. His excellent pedigree and his well-tested endurance on the track makes him a good bet at 12-1.

Creator

Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Post Position: 3rd

Creator, who is another 12/1 bet in the Kentucky Derby, won the Arkansas Derby in Hot Springs this year, and he finished third in the Rebel Stakes. In his eight total starts, he’s won twice, and come in second four times. His trainer, Steven Asmussen, also trains Gun Runner.

Outwork

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Post Position: 15th

His lack of experience makes him a 16/1 bet at the Kentucky Derby, but the son of Uncle Mo is primed to have a strong future of wins ahead. He is one of three horses in the Derby sired by Uncle Mo, which in itself is remarkable, and he’ll be joined at the race by his siblings Nyquist and Mo Tom. Outwork won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

Mo Tom

Trainer: Thomas Amoss
Post Position: 4th

Mo Tom was sired by Uncle Mo, the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and is a top first-crop sire who ranks third overall in earnings. Mo Tom is known for his speed, but hasn’t won a race since taking Fair Grounds’ Grade III Lecomte. His owners have another horse, Tom’s Ready, in this race as well. Mo Tom is currently listed at 20/1.

My Man Sam

Trainer: Chad Brown
Post Position: 6th

This will be My Man Sam’s fifth race, and to date he’s won once and come in second twice. One of those finishes was fairly recent at the Blue Grass Stakes, where he impressed with a very fast final eighth mile. At 20/1, My Man Sam is under the radar, but is considered one of the better bets in that particular group.

Suddenbreakingnews

Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel
Post Position: 2nd

Suddenbreakingnews’s sire is Mineshaft, who was named the 2003 Horse of the Year. Although a 20/1 long shot to win the Kentucky Derby, he has three wins and four second-place finishes in eight starts and is a good stretch runner, which might give him a chance at the winner’s circle.

Danzing Candy

Trainer: Clifford Sise Jr.
Post Position: 20th

At 20-1 odds, Danzing Candy isn’t considered a front runner at the Kentucky Derby, since he didn’t finish in the top three in his final prep, finishing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby by 13 lengths. He’ll be ridden by Mike Smith, who is a Hall of Famer who won the Derby in 2005 with Giacomo. Giacomo won the Derby that year after also finishing fourth in at Santa Anita, so he could be the good luck charm that Danzing Candy will definitely need.

Shagaf

Trainer: Chad Brown
Post Position: 16th

Shagaf is a long shot at 25/1. He had a disappointing showing at the Wood Memorial, coming in fifth, and the last horse that won the Derby after finishing worse than fourth in their last prep was Iron Leige in 1957.

Lani

Trainer: Koji Maeda
Post Position: 8th

Lani is currently listed at 28/1. He won the UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai, and was sired by one of the fastest stallions in the world, Pulpit out of a mare by Sunday Silence, who won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 1989. A win by Lani would make it the first win by a horse who’d also won the UAE Derby.

Whitmore

Trainer: Ron Moquett
Post Position: 10th

The son of Pleasantly Perfect is near the bottom of the pile in terms of odds, at 33/1 at current standings. His rider, Victor Espinoza, has won the Derby three times in the past, but that probably won’t be enough to make Whitmore a real contender to make the winner’s circle.

Majesto

Trainer: Gustavo Delgaro
Post Position: 18th

Majesto is a horse bred for distance, and he showed his value when he came in second to Nyquist at the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. He won Venezuela’s Triple Crown four times and his trainer, Gustavo Delgado, has won the Kentucky Derby before. His 33/1 odds reflect the fact that horses generally don’t win the Kentucky Derby without having finished first in a stakes victory.

Trojan Nation

Trainer: Paddy Gallagher
Post Position: 1st

Trojan Nation will try and defy history this year as the first non-winner in more than 80 to break his maiden at the Kentucky Derby. He couldn’t be making that attempt at a more precarious starting post position however, as Trojan Nation drew the dreaded 1st position on the track.

Oscar Nominated

Trainer: Ken and Sarah Ramsey
Post Position: 7th

Oscar Nominated had to pay extra for the privilege of racing in this year’s Derby, and the odds will reflect that. He has never raced on dirt before, but he is coming into this race with two recent wins.

Tom’s Ready

Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Post Position: 12th

Tom’s Ready might not be ready for the Kentucky Derby. He came in second at the Louisiana Derby, losing to Gun Runner. His only win has come against other maidens, so the odds on this horse reflect his inexperience racing against horses who are used to winning.

Kentucky Derby 2016 Betting Odds

The current line odds for the Kentucky Derby are listed here, and the undefeated 3-year-old colt Nyquist is the favorite at 283/96 to win the 142nd running of the race. Exaggerator and Mohaymen are just behind him, both posting 8/1 odds to win the Race to the Roses.

Kentucky Derby Picks and Prediction

There’s a reason Nyquist is considered the front runner in this race – he’s consistent and he loves to win. However, in this race, he has some very strong competition. My picks for the Winner’s Circle are:

1. Mor Spirit
2. Nyquist
3. Mohaymen