2015 Kentucky Derby Odds, Bets and Picks

Ricky Rothstein marks your card and makes his picks for the 141st Run for the Roses, the Kentucky Derby!

The 2015 Kentucky Derby offers one of the most talented fields we’ve seen in years. If the Derby field were a team of crime-fighting superheroes, we’re talking more Avengers than Fantastic Four.

There are different ways to win the Kentucky Derby. Sometimes, it’s the skills of the jockey that keeps a horse out of trouble in the hectic early going, only hitting the jets once they turn into the final straight. This Derby is unlikely to be won that way. When the gates open on Saturday, the horses will all come flying out the gates, nostrils flaring and their jockeys hanging on for dear life.

Sports Interaction’s 2015 Kentucky Derby Odds

American Pharaoh, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by veteran Victor Espinoza, is the favorite. He won the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths and looked glorious on his first runout at Churchill Downs.

Pharaoh’s biggest challenge may come from stable-mate Dortmund, ridden by Martin Garcia. Pharaoh wins races pulling up, while Dortmund was under pressure at San Felipe and Santa Anita. So does that mean Pharaoh is the better horse, or Dortmund has the bigger heart? Heart counts in races like the Derby.

The flat-out fastest horse in the 2015 field is Materiality, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Javier Castellano. The big problem Materiality has is that he’s only had three races, and has never raced as a two-year-old. A horse that hasn’t raced as a two-year-old hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby since 1882, and a lot of horses has come and gone at Churchill Downs since 1882.

Materiality had been ridden by John Velazquez in all his races but Velazquez has chosen stable-mate Carpe Diem as his Derby ride. Latin for “seize the day,” Carpe Diem is a suitably heroic name for a Derby winner, but he’s been drawn in Gate 2 and that’s not going to suit him. He doesn’t have the speed to avoid early trouble.

The draw is bad luck for Velazquez, but maybe good luck for bettors. My Derby pick is the horse Velazquez rejected – Materiality. The lack of races is a distinct disadvantage – the Derby can be a very frightening race for horses. But Materiality has the highest Beyer speed figure of any Derby horse, and that makes up for a lot.

If Materiality gets off to a fast start, the chaos of the race approaching the first turn won’t affect him, because that will all be behind him – all Materiality will see is open ground. Then it’s head down, ears back and run like hell. If Materiality can do that for two minutes, he’ll win the 141st Kentucky Derby at the very tasty price of +1200 with Sports Interaction.

Ricky’s Picks:
1. Materiality
2. Dortmund
3. American Pharaoh