PGA Picks at Wells Fargo: Betting Tommy Fleetwood with Scheffler Out?
It’s a Signature Event on the PGA Tour this week at the Wells Fargo Championship in Charlotte, which means a limited but excellent field competing for a purse worth $20 million (U.S.). Rory McIlroy is favoured on the PGA odds board.
Let’s be clear that any tournament red-hot world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler plays in for the immediate future, he would be the betting favourite. But Scheffler is skipping this week with his wife due to give birth at any time. He’s the only eligible player who opted not to play (as of this writing), and it’s a 70-man field with no cut.
Interesting decision to put this big event the week before the PGA Championship as that was not the case in 2023 (when there was also a Wells Fargo cut). Some guys don’t like playing the week before a major but pretty much everyone else of note is teeing up this week other than Tiger Woods and of course all the LIV Golf guys. Also note there is an opposite-field event this week, the Myrtle Beach Classic, for those who didn’t qualify for the Wells Fargo. That purse? $4 million.
Quail Hollow Club is the host and is a par 71 at approximately 7,560 yards. Quail Hollow, often called the “Green Mile,” didn’t host in 2017 when American Brian Harman prevailed because the course was being prepared for that year’s PGA Championship (won by Justin Thomas). I’m assuming Quail Hollow won’t host next year, either, because the PGA Championship is returning there. Another track also hosted the Wells Fargo in 2022 – won by Max Homa – because Quail Hollow was hosting the Presidents’ Cup. It’s a very popular stop on Tour.
Wells Fargo field wide open with Scheffler skipping event
The defending champion is American Wyndham Clark, who finished at 19-under 265 last year to beat out second-place Xander Schauffele by four. Clark shot a final-round 68 for his first PGA Tour win but has since added the 2023 U.S. Open and this year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Clark’s total of 265 was the second-lowest score in relation to par in tournament history behind only three-time champion McIlroy’s 21-under 267 in 2015 when par for the course was 72.
No player has repeated in this event, which dates to 2003, and only McIlroy and Homa have won it multiple times. There hasn’t been a playoff since 2016 when James Hahn beat Roberto Castro. This is the final year the tournament under its current name as Wells Fargo announced in last December it would not continue its title sponsorship. One benefit for those bettors perhaps going to the tournament: Online wagering in North Carolina only came active on March 11.
Our value pick to win in 2023 at +6600 was Keith Mitchell, but he finished T59.
Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Golf Odds
Rory McIlroy (+850) is playing for the first time since winning the Zurich Classic of New Orleans team event with fellow Irishman Shane Lowry two weeks ago. Rory has had just one Top 10 individually all year, coming at the Valero Texas Open the week before the Masters. He’s definitely a “Horse for the Course” here with those three wins in this event and nine Top 10s overall.
Xander Schauffele (+1000), Ludvig Aberg (+1100), Patrick Cantlay (+1800) and defending champion Wyndham Clark (+1800) round out the favourites.
Schauffele had that runner-up here in 2023 and was T14 the visit before. Aberg makes his tournament debut. The Swede is having a fine year but still looking for a win on the PGA Tour. Cantlay has a best result of 21st in the tournament. He was T3 in his last individual tournament at the RBC Hertiage the week after the Masters. Clark comes off a T3 a few weeks ago at the RBC Heritage. He had not contended in two previous trips here before his 2023 win.
No Canadian has won this event. Corey Conners was the top finisher last year at T8, while Adam Svensson was T27. Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes and Taylor Pendrith missed the cut. Pendrith won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in the Dallas area on Sunday for his first PGA Tour win and is +8000 on the golf odds board to go back-to-back. The 32-year-old won in his 74th career PGA Tour start on Sunday. Conners is +5000 this week with Hadwin +9000, Hughes +10000, Nick Taylor +12500 and Svensson +15000.
Wells Fargo Championship Golf Predictions
Take Rory McIlroy for another Top 10, but the winner at +2500 is England’s Tommy Fleetwood. He was 14th in the 2021 tournament at Quail Hollow and fifth last year. Fleetwood is way overdue his first PGA Tour win.