PGA Picks and Odds: Sungjae Im favoured to win John Deere Classic

Sungjae Im is favoured on the golf odds.

Only four of the world’s Top 30 players are in the field. The John Deere used to be held the week before the British Open, and the tournament would charter a flight for any players who wanted to play in this tournament and then were headed overseas. There is another PGA Tour event next week in Kentucky but it’s an opposite-field event to the Scottish Open, which is sanctioned by the PGA Tour and DP World Tour so this definitely will be the last week in the USA for most of the top golfers for the next couple of tournaments. The British Open starts July 18 from Royal Troon also in Scotland.

This event has been around since 1971, although it was canceled due to COVID in 2020. The last player to win any PGA tournament three straight years was Steve Stricker at the John Deere from 2009-2011. He and DA Weibring are the only players to win it three times. The last 10 winners here have had an average Driving Distance ranking of 27.9 and an average Driving Accuracy ranking of 22.2.

TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Ill., is the host course, a par 71 at around 7,290 yards. The signature hole is the par-3 16th called “Mother Earth.” Water is in play on five holes. The two nines end with the two hardest holes on the course, both par 4s. Weibring utilized the best of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley landscape to design TPC Deere Run. It’s one of the easiest tracks on Tour despite plenty of elevation and most likely will take at least 20 under par to win. The tournament record score was 27-under 257 by Michael Kim in 2018. A 59 was shot here in 2010 by Paul Goydos.

Americans have won the tournament the vast majority of times but not in 2023 as Austria’s Sepp Straka finished at 21-under 263 to beat out Alex Smalley and Brendon Todd by two shots each – the fifth time in a row that the John Deere was won by at least two shots. It hasn’t gone to a playoff since 2015. Straka shot a final-round 62 last year despite making double bogey on 18 (perhaps trying for a 59?). He shot 73 on Thursday but followed with rounds of 63, 65 and 62. Straka started the tournament 3 over through just 16 holes but over his next 55 holes made just one bogey against 25 birdies and an eagle.

John Deere Classic Golf Odds

American Patrick Cantlay, ranked No. 8 in the world, was the betting favourite this week but withdrew Monday morning. He was replaced in the field by Russell Knox (+20000). I probably would have taken Cantlay to win this week considering he tied for third at the U.S. Open and tied for fifth at the Travelers Championship in his past two starts.

South Korea’s Sungjae Im is the new +1400 favourite to win this tournament for the first time. Im hasn’t played here since a T47 in 2021 and is competing for a spot in the International Team in the Presidents Cup. He has five Top 10s this year, including a T3 last time out at the Travelers Championship.

Defending champion Sepp Straka is +1600. Last year was Straka’s second PGA Tour win after the 2022 Honda Classic in Florida, and the former University of Georgia star hasn’t won since but does have four Top 10s this year.

Jordan Spieth won his first PGA Tour title here in 2013 and then won again in 2015 and is +1800 to become the third player to win the John Deere three times. For whatever reason, Spieth hasn’t played here since ’15. He’s struggling right now as well with no Top 10 this year since April in Texas.

Aaron Rai, Davis Thompson and Denny McCarthy round out the favourites at +2200 each. McCarthy was the favourite entering the 2023 tournament and finished T6 for the second straight year. The 29-year-old Rai, from England, looks for his first PGA Tour win but was one of four runners-up Sunday at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit. Aussie Cam Davis won that for his second Tour career win, with the first also in Detroit. He originally was to play this week but opted to withdraw. Thompson was T31 here last year and looking for his first Tour win. He also was a runner-up Sunday in Motown.

Canada’s Dave Barr won this event in 1981 in a playoff over fellow Canadian Dan Halldorson as well as Woody Blackburn, Frank Conner and Victor Regalado. David Hearn (and Zach Johnson) lost in a 2013 playoff against Spieth. Adam Svensson was the top Canadian last year at T21. Adam Hadwin, Nick Taylor and Michael Gligic missed the cut. Svensson is +5500 this week with Ben Silverman +9000 and Roger Sloan +30000.

John Deere Classic Golf Predictions

We like an American overall, but that prop hasn’t been posted yet. For an individual, we would go with Alex Smalley at a great price of +12500. Smalley isn’t having a good year but since 2017 he has an average score of 67.75 at the John Deere, second-best among anyone in this year’s field. Smalley was T2 last year and T16 in 2022.