PGA Championship Odds and Picks: Scottie Scheffler Returns as Betting Favourite

Payton Matthews
Last Updated: May 14, 2024

It’s the second major championship of 2024 on the PGA Tour schedule this week as the 106th PGA Championship tees off from Louisville on Thursday with world No. 1 and Masters champion Scottie Scheffler favoured at +450 on the golf odds.

Like the British Open and U.S. Open, the PGA Championship moves around every year and is hosted by Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville for the fourth time. In 1996 at Valhalla, Mark Brooks won the Wannamaker Trophy by beating Kenny Perry in a playoff. In 2000, Tiger Woods beat Bob May in a playoff. And in 2014, Rory McIlroy edged out Phil Mickelson by a shot. The course has been renovated and lengthened since that ’14 tournament and now sits at par 71 at a long 7,609 yards. The total length is about 150 yards longer than 2014.

Tiger Woods facing long odds at Valhalla Golf Club

Woods is in the field this week per his plans to play all four majors in 2024. Woods barely made the cut in April at the Masters but then finished dead last among the players who did at 16 over par. Anyone who thinks Tiger can win another major in his current physical state is delusional, and he’s +15000 to capture the event for a fourth time. He’s at +150 to make the cut this week.

Of course, we also get to see the LIV guys play this week. Brooks Koepka might be Scheffler’s top competition this week as Koepka recently won on the LIV Tour in Singapore and has won three of the past five PGA Championships, including last year at Oak Hill outside New York. Koepka had three straight birdies in the first four holes to open up a four-shot lead over Norway’s Viktor Hovland and Canada’s Corey Conners and then held on to finish at 9-under 271 and beat out Hovland and Scheffler by two each. Americans have won the tournament every year since 2016.

Another good LIV player, Talor Gooch (+10000), got a special exemption for the PGA Championship. That often fills out its out its field by inviting those who are among the Top 100 in the world rankings or otherwise exempt. Gooch was the No. 1 player in the LIV Golf standings in 2023. Gooch had long criticized the fact that many LIV players don’t have a presence in the majors because of the formula used to fill out the fields as no major championships give direct spots to the LIV.

Our pick last year was Patrick Cantlay to win his first major, but he finished T9 after a final-round 66. If not for a first-round 74, he would have been in contention. Fellow American Jordan Spieth tries again for the career grand slam this week and is +6600.

Scheffler and McIlroy highlight PGA Championship odds

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+450) has won four of his past five tournaments on the PGA Tour but hasn’t played since capturing the RBC Heritage the week after the Masters. He has yet to win the PGA Championship but had that runner-up in 2023. Scheffler has five top-three finishes (including two Masters wins) in his last nine starts in major championships. In the past 70 years, only five golfers have won the first two majors of the season and not since Jordan Spieth in 2015.

Rory McIlroy (+750) looks for his first PGA Championship win since 2014 at this same course but comes off back-to-back wins on Tour this season: Sunday at the Wells Fargo and a couple of weeks ago in New Orleans in the Zurich Classic two-man team event.

Xander Schauffele (+1400), defending champion Brooks Koepka (+1600), Ludvig Aberg (+1800) and Jon Rahm (+2000) round out the favorites. The last player to repeat in the PGA Championship? Koepka in 2019 at Bethpage Black. He looks for a fourth title in the event; only Walter Hagen (five, all in the match play era), Jack Nicklaus (five) and Tiger Woods (four) have won it that many. That any LIV golfer like Koepka or Rahm wins this week is +450 with no at -800.

Schauffele has finished in the Top 20 in each of the past eight majors but is yet to win one. It’s going to happen eventually. Aberg is just getting started on what should be a stellar career. Do note he was forced to pull out of last week’s Wells Fargo Championship because of a knee injury. Rahm didn’t play well this year at the Masters but has made the cut in each of the past 18 majors, the longest such current streak. No Spainard has won the PGA Championship.

No Canadian has won this tournament. Corey Conners was the top finisher last year at T12, with Taylor Pendrith T29, and Adam Hadwin and Adam Svensson both T40. Nick Taylor and Mackenzie Hughes missed the cut. Hughes comes off a T6 at the Wells Fargo on Sunday and is +20000 this week. Conners is +10000, Pendrith +15000, Hadwin +20000, Nick Taylor +25000 and Svensson +40000.