Mexico Open At Vidanta: PGA Tour Odds and Predictions
World No. 1 Jon Rahm is favoured on the golf odds just like was last year.
This event dates back to 1944 and has been played over a few tours, including European Challenge Tour, Nationwide Tour and PGA Tour Latinoamerica (Canadian Drew Nesbitt won it in 2019 on that latter tour). It became an official PGA Tour event last year – replacing the defunct World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship — but has one of the smallest purses at $7.7 million (US).
The Greg Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Villarta is a par 71 at 7,456 yards. Accuracy and distance off the tee are important nine of the Top 15 finishers last year were in the Top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.
There’s a field of 144 and a handful of sponsor exemptions will go to players from Latin America. For example, University of Arkansas player and Argentine Mateo Fernández de Oliveira was the first to obtain the exemption thanks to his victory in the Latin America Amateur Championship. Jose de Jesus Rodriguez debuts here as he was granted an exemption for being the top-ranked Mexican in the Official World Golf Ranking. Rodriguez has played 33 career PGA Tour events and yet to finish in the Top 10.
There will be 17 Latin American players in the field. Four native Mexican players have won on the PGA Tour, with Abraham Ancer’s victory at the 2021 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational as the most recent.
Spain’s Rahm is the defending champion, finishing at 17-under 267, and edging out Americans Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama and Brandon Wu by a shot. Rahm, who had a two-shot lead entering the final round, pulled out of a four-way tie with a 12-foot birdie putt on the 14th hole and then held on with pars to shoot a final-round 69. Finau and Wu each closed with a 63.
Mexico Open Golf Odds
Jon Rahm’s victory in Mexico in 2022 was his lone victory anywhere last year and it came after a 17-event drought worldwide, matching the longest of his career. The Spaniard has already won four times this season, including the Masters. Kudos to Rahm for honouring commitments to the RBC Heritage (finished T15) and this event despite winning the green jacket when most guys would have withdrawn from these after capturing the Masters. Rahm’s price of +320 this week is about as low as anyone will have to win a tournament this year.
Tony Finau is +800 and then a dropoff to Wyndham Clark (+2000), Maverick McNealy (+3000) and Gary Woodland (+3000). Finau had that runner-up last year and has missed just one cut all this season. He comes off a T31 at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago. McNealy plays here for the first time and comes off a missed cut at the RBC Heritage. We liked Woodland to win in 2022, and he finished T24 at 9 under as a second-round 72 largely did him in (all other rounds 69 or better).
In 2022, Michael Gligic was the top Canadian at T24, with Nick Taylor, Roger Sloan and Adam Svensson missing the cut. Taylor Pendrith is +4000 this week with Gligic +40000.
Mexico Open Golf Predictions
Take Rahm for a Top 10, but we like Patrick Rodgers at +3200 to win. He was 10th last year and has been fifth and T19 in his past two events on Tour this season.
