Charles Schwab Challenge Odds and Picks: Scottie Scheffler is a heavy favourite in Texas

It’s the week after the PGA Championship, so it’s a bit of a watered-down field on the PGA Tour at the Charles Schwab Challenge at storied Colonial in Fort Worth, Texas. But world No. 1 and Texan Scottie Scheffler is set to play and the clear-cut favourite on the golf odds.

We hit on an American at -125 to win the PGA Championship on Sunday when Xander Schauffele birdied the 18th hole at Valhalla in Louisville to edge out Bryson DeChambeau by a shot. Schauffele, 30, was arguably the best PGA Tour player yet to win a major. His 21-under 263 was the lowest 72-hole score to par and the lowest 72-hole scoring total in a major championship. Valhalla basically was rendered defenceless due to rain all week. It was the ninth straight PGA Championship won by an American. Schauffele is deservedly taking this week off.

Colonial Country Club is the longest-running host venue among non-majors on the PGA Tour schedule, and it has been renovated at a cost of about $25 million (U.S.) since last year with the goal of restoring the course to its original look when it first opened in 1936. It’s a par 70 at 7,289 yards.

Perhaps expect a playoff at the Charles Schwab Challenge as three of the past four have gone past 72 holes. That includes last year when Argentina’s Emiliano Grillo beat American Adam Schenk after both finished regulation play at 8-under 272. Grillo made a 5-foot birdie putt on the second playoff hole to get his first PGA Tour victory in more than 7 1/2 years …. after blowing a two-stroke lead with a double-bogey on the 72nd hole.

Grillo entered last year’s tournament ranked No. 134 in Strokes Gained: Putting, but he ranked second in that category at the Charles Schwab, including a 17-foot birdie on No. 12 on the final round and a 20-footer on No. 16 when he appeared in control before the 18th hole. His tee shot there headed wide right, and he had to take a penalty stroke and drop when his ball landed in an aqueduct. Grillo’s only other Tour win was in 2015 at the Frys.com Open, and he hasn’t won since here. I was high on Brendon Todd at +7500 last year, but after a first-round 69 he faded to a T57.

Charles Schwab Challenge Golf Odds

While I’m not surprised Scottie Scheffler (+275) is playing in his native state, it would have been very understandable to want a week off after that incredibly wild story regarding his arrest in Louisville while trying to drive to the PGA Championship course early Friday morning.

Scheffler is set to have an arraignment on Tuesday, but it’s fully expected that won’t be necessary with the charges to be dropped. As they should be. Huge overreaction by the police. Scheffler will not complete the grand slam this year as he finished eighth at the PGA Championship, his 10th top-10 finish in 11 events so far in 2024. Scheffler hasn’t won here but was third and second the past two years.

Collin Morikawa is +1400 – crazy gap between Scheffler and the second-favourite – with Max Homa +2000, Jordan Spieth +2200 and Tony Finau +2500. Morikawa was fourth at the PGA Championship and lost in a playoff here in 2020 to Daniel Berger (+6600 this week) but hasn’t contended since.

Homa’s best finish at the tournament was last year’s ninth. Spieth was trying for the career grand slam at the PGA Championship but finished 43rd. He always plays well in his native Texas and won here in 2017 with three more second-place finishes mixed in (last in 2021). Finau was a runner-up in 2019 and fourth in 2022 but missed the cut last year.

Defending champion Emiliano Grillo is +15000 to become the first player to repeat in the tournament since Ben Hogan way back in 1953. His five wins here are by far the most and that was his second time repeating. No one else has done it once.

No Canadian player has won this tournament. George Knudson was second to Bruce Crampton in 1965. With Adam Svensson withdrawing last year, the only Canadian in the field was Nick Taylor, who missed the cut after rounds of 71-73. Svensson is +15000 this week with Ben Silverman +17500.