2025 Mexico Open: PGA Tour Golf Odds and Predictions

Akshay Bhatia is favoured on the golf odds.

One major storyline of the early Tour season has been international dominance with non-Americans winning six of the seven tournaments thus far and all from different countries: Japan, Canada, Austria, Northern Ireland, Belgium and Sweden after Swede Ludvig Aberg took the Genesis Invitational on Sunday in San Diego.

Aberg is not playing this week and really no big-name guys are. The highest-ranked player in the world who was going to play was No. 14 Maverick McNealy. The American got a big check Sunday in California after a runner-up finish at the Genesis, so he withdrew.

Because this follows a Signature Event and is ahead of the start of the Florida Swing, it’s not a great field overall. There are a handful of Mexican players in it. The Greg Norman Signature Course at VidantaWorld’s Vidanta Villarta is a long par 71 at 7,453 yards. It meanders along the Ameca River, and positioning off the tee is a big key to success.

The Mexico Open has been an official PGA Tour event since 2022 and was won by Spaniard Jon Rahm (now on the LIV Tour) that year, but Americans the past two with Jake Knapp as the defending champion. Then a rookie, he lost a four-shot lead in seven holes on Sunday but was able to shoot an even-par 71 and finish at 19-under 265 and up by two over Finland’s Sami Valimaki. Perhaps it was nerves, but Knapp didn’t hit a fairway until the eighth hole and found only two the entire final round. He never lost the lead, but twice allowed Valimaki of Finland to catch him.

Knapp was the beneficiary of Tiger Woods withdrawing from last week’s Genesis Invitational as Knapp took his spot and finished a season-best T17. Knapp is +3300 become the first repeat winner of this tournament since it became a full-fledged Tour event. My pick last year in Mexico fellow American Brandon Wu at +3500, and he finished T13.

Mexico Open Golf Odds

The only players ranked in the world Top 40 in this week’s field are Americans Akshay Bhatia (+1400) and England’s Aaron Rai (+2800). Bhatia comes off a season-best T9 at the Genesis Invitational on Sunday and was fourth in his only appearance in this event in 2023. Rai was 19^th here last year and was 37^th on Sunday at the Genesis.

Rasmus Hojgaard (+2000), Kurt Kitayama (+2200), Patrick Rodgers (+2200), Sam Stevens (+2500) and Stephan Jaeger (+2500) round out the favourites. Hojgaard missed the cut last week but has a pair of Top 15s on the year. He hasn’t played here recently. Kitayama was one of three runners-up at the 2022 Mexico Open to Jon Rahm but hasn’t played the event since. Kitayama isn’t off to a very good start to 2025.

Since 2022, the best course average score at the Mexico Open is 67.75 by Rodgers, who was third last year for his third straight Top 10 in the event. He also comes off a T3 at the Genesis. Stevens has a runner-up on Tour this year but missed the cut in his only trip here in 2024. Jaeger has not been worse than 18^th here the past three years with a best of third last year but hasn’t contended his past three Tour events in 2025.

Still awaiting the first Canadian winner of this official Tour event, although Drew Nesbitt won in 2019 when it was part of the PGA Tour Latinoamérica schedule. Ben Silverman was the top finisher last year at T13, followed by Stuart Macdonald at T24. Roger Sloan, Taylor Pendrith and Mackenzie Hughes missed the cut. Adam Svensson is +5500 this week as is Ben Silverman.