2022 Wells Fargo Championship: PGA Tour Golf Odds and Predictions

After a watered-down PGA Tour field last week in Mexico, it’s a better one this week at the Wells Fargo Championship from Maryland. Rory McIlroy is favoured to win on the golf odds.

This week will be the last time many top golfers play ahead of the PGA Championship from May 19-22. Unfortunately, handicapping the event this week will be a challenge because it’s being held at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm near Washington, D.C. It’s a par 70 at around 7,160 yards. Usually, the tournament is played at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, but that course will host the Presidents Cup event later this year and apparently it takes months to get ready for that. TPC Avenel has one par 4 that pretty much every player can reach with his drive: the 299-yard 14th.

TPC Avenel did host the Quicken Loans National (now defunct) PGA Tour event in 2017-18. Francesco Molinari won by eight shots at 21 under in 2018 and Kyle Stanley finished at 7 under and won in a playoff in 2017, so who is to say what the track will play like this week. The course yielded 15 eagles in 2018.

If one guy has an advantage this week it might be long-shot Denny McCarthy, who grew up just a few miles from the course and likely has played it more than anyone else in the field. McCarthy has never won on the PGA Tour. He’s +8000.

The defending champion is McIlroy. He was eight shots back of the lead after a first-round 72 and two back in his final round last year but shot a 68 to finish at 1-under 274 and edge Abraham Ancer by a shot. It was Rory’s third time winning this tournament – his PGA Tour debut win was the Wells Fargo Championship in 2010. Again, though, those were at Quail Hollow. He is the only multiple-time winner of the tournament, which began in 2003.

Jon Rahm, who won the Mexico Open on Sunday, is among those not playing this week.

Wells Fargo Golf Odds

McIlroy is the +700 favourite to repeat and as noted above definitely is a “Horse for the Course” at usual host Quail Hollow. The Irishman has one PGA Tour victory this season back in October and comes off a runner-up showing at the Masters. McIlroy does have a good history at tournaments in the Washington, D.C., area as he won the 2011 U.S. Open at Congressional by eight shots.

Tony Finau, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Canadian Corey Conners are all +2000. Finau has a best result of T16 at this event, Fitzpatrick is making his event debut and Conners’ best was T42 in 2018. Finau also comes off a T2 at the Mexico Open.

No Canadian has won this event. Nick Taylor was the top finisher last year at T26, while Conners was T43, Michael Gligic and Roger Sloan T58, and Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes and David Hearn missed the cut. Adam Svensson is +12000 this week with Hughes +14000, Taylor +19000, Sloan +32000 and Gligic +50000. Gligic was the top Canadian finisher at the Mexico Open over the weekend at T24.

Wells Fargo Championship Golf Predictions

While I like McIlroy for a Top 10, we’ll take Matt Kuchar at +5000 to win. He has been T3, T2 and T16 in his past three PGA Tour events. He doesn’t have much history at this tournament, but most guys don’t in terms of the one-year host course.