2021 Northern Trust: FedEx Cup Playoffs, PGA Tour Betting Odds
As the PGA Tour season year winds down with the beginning of the FedEx Cup playoffs, Jon Rahm is favoured to win the opening Northern Trust tournament on the golf odds.
The Top 125 players in FedExCup points following Sunday’s Wyndham Championship qualified for the playoffs, but that doesn’t necessarily mean all of them will play here. Some guys already are basically locks to qualify for the Tour Championship, so they may take another week off.
The Top 70 in points after this week advance to the BMW Championship next week and then the Top 30 after that to the Tour Championship. Some big names who didn’t finish in the Top 125: Justin Rose (126), Rickie Fowler (134), Tommy Fleetwood (137) and Francesco Molinari (142).
It’s a bit trickier handicapping the Northern Trust because it isn’t held at the same course every year. This time, it’s at Liberty National Golf Club in Jersey City, New Jersey, in the shadow of New York City. This will be the fourth time the course has hosted the first event of the FedExCup playoffs — Heath Slocum won in 2009, Adam Scott in 2013 and Patrick Reed in 2019. Devout golf fans also may remember that Liberty National hosted the 2017 President’s Cup. It’s a par 71 at about 7,140 yards.
The defending champion of this tournament is Dustin Johnson, who won it for a third time in 2020, but obviously not at this exact track. It was held at TPC Boston a year ago and Johnson utterly dominated by shooting a tournament-record 30-under-par to win by 11 shots. His final 54 holes were rounds of 60-64-63. It was the largest margin of victory on the PGA Tour since Phil Mickelson won by 13 at the TPC Sugarloaf in 2006.
DJ was only the third player in PGA Tour history to finish at 30 under or better. Johnson also won in a playoff in 2017 at Glen Oaks, New York, and in 2011 in Plainfield, New Jersey. His three wins in the tournament are one shy of Vijay Singh’s record of four the record four. Americans have won the Northern Trust – it was called the Barclays for several years – five straight years. In fact, since 2009 only Americans and Australians have won it.
Incidentally, recent history tells us that whomever holds the 54-hole lead at this event will not win it. Rather shockingly, there have been 13 straight PGA Tour events this year won by a player who wasn’t leading entering the final round. The most recent player to hold the 54-hole lead or co-lead and win was Phil Mickelson at the PGA Championship.
Additionally, the Northern Trust is the only FedExCup playoff event with a 36-hole cut.
Northern Trust Golf Betting Odds
Spain’s Jon Rahm, the world No. 1, is the +900 favourite to win. He hasn’t played since the British Open – he was to compete in the Olympics but tested positive for COVID. Rahm was T6 at this event last year and T3 two years ago when held last at Liberty National.
Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth are each +1600. As noted above, DJ has won this three times. He didn’t play this past weekend at the Wyndham Championship. Neither did Spieth, who has a best finish of runner-up at this event in losing a 2017 playoff to Johnson. Spieth missed the cut last year.
Collin Morikawa is +1800 and Xander Schauffele +2000. Morikawa has yet to contend in two trips to this tournament, while Schauffele’s best result is T17 in 2017.
No Canadian has won the event. Graham DeLaet was one of four runners-up by a shot to Adam Scott in 2013, also at Liberty National. Corey Conners (28th in points) is +5500. He has played this tournament twice with a best of T21. Mackenzie Hughes (67th in points) is +12500 and was T13 last year. Roger Sloan (+15000) was part of Sunday’s six-man playoff – he didn’t win — at the Wyndham Championship, which jumped him from 131st in points to 92nd. Adam Hadwin (96th in points) is +20000.
Northern Trust Golf Predictions
I like Johnson and Rahm for Top 10s, but the winner at +2800 is Daniel Berger. Three of his past four starts have been majors or WGCs, and he’s finished in the Top 10 in all of them. Berger was also third in the 2020 version of this tournament.