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2019 BMW Championship: PGA Tour Odds and Prediction

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BMW Championship Background

The FedExCup playoffs have only been around since 2007 and that’s how long the BMW Championship has been played. This essentially replaced the former Western Open in the Chicago area on the PGA Tour’s annual schedule. While the BMW Championship – which is run by the Western Golf Association — has largely been held around the Windy City (a few years it was in other states), this will be the first time that Medinah Country Club, one of America’s premier tracks, will host it. Medinah has hosted two PGA Championships, three U.S. Opens as well as the 2012 Ryder Cup. Medinah has three courses, but this event will be played on the storied No. 3, the same that hosted all those big events.

The Top 125 in FedExCup points were whittled down to the Top 70 at last week’s Northern Trust tournament in New Jersey. Thus, there will be no cut this week. Only the Top 30 after this event qualify for next week’s season-ending Tour Championship in Atlanta where every player in the field would have a theoretical chance at winning the tournament and thus the FedExCup (in previous years, someone could win the tournament but not the FedExCup). Needless to say, the higher up in points a player is, the better his chance of cashing in big time next week.

BMW Championship Betting Favourites

World No. 1 Brooks Koepka is +800 to win this tournament for the first time. He’s also first in points and if he stays there after Sunday, would enter the Tour Championship starting that event at 10-under par and two shots ahead of whomever is No. 2 in points. Koepka finished 30th last week.

Rory McIlroy is the +750 favourite. He and a handful of others will at least have a feel for the course from playing in the 2012 Ryder Cup, which Europe won. Rory finished tied for 6th last week at the Northern Trust and won this tournament in 2012.  Jon Rahm is +1000 with Dustin Johnson at +1400. Johnson is one of two players to win this event twice, but those were at different courses. He last did in 2016 at Crooked Stick in Indiana (where McIlroy won his). Johnson hasn’t been Top 10 in any of his past six tournaments this year.

The other player to win the BMW Championship twice is Tiger Woods, and he’s +4000. That’s if Woods even plays. He shot a first-round 75 last Thursday in New Jersey and then withdrew before Round 2 with an oblique injury. Tiger has to play for any shot to qualify for the Tour Championship as he’s 38th in points. Tiger won the PGA Championship at Medinah twice.

The current first player out of the Tour Championship field at No. 31 is Ryan Palmer (+14000 to win this week).

Canadian Golfer Odds

No Canadian has won this tournament. Corey Conners is 27th in points and +16000 this week. He finished 21st last week. Adam Hadwin needs a very good week to qualify for the Tour Championship as he’s 51st in points and +14000. He was 43rd last week.

BMW Championship Predictions

Take McIlroy and Justin Rose for Top 10s, but the winner at +1400 is Justin Thomas. He’s won every year as a pro but not yet this season. Thomas is trending up with three straight finishes of T12 or better.