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Edgar Chaput
Tiger-Cats vs. Alouettes Prediction: CFL Week 10 Point Spread, Odds
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats will attempt to do to the Montreal Alouettes what the latter did to them in Week 9: defeat them on the road. Last Friday night Montreal’s defence manhandled whatever Hamilton threw at them en route to a 33-16 declawing of the Ticats. As such, a game that could have tightened the East Division only reinforced the Als’ supremacy, at least for now. Montreal improved to 7-1 whereas Hamilton limped to 2-6.
Our CFL odds believe the host Alouettes will take care of business with relative ease, pegging them as -7.5 favourites.
CFL Odds and Betting
It’s been a minute since the Tiger-Cats hunted down the Alouettes successfully. Their last win came in June 2022. Since then the Als have rattled off eight consecutive wins, including two in the postseason. Worse, one of the few close matches was a 22-20 win last October to conclude the regular season when the East Division standings were wrapped up. In essence, it was a battle of backup lineups.
Like several other CFL clubs in 2023, the Ticats have a record against the spread that mirrors their straight up results, 2-6. Furthermore, like those other clubs, Hamilton handles the spread when they actually win the game and fails to do so when their rivals get the better of them. It should be noted that most of their spreads as underdogs have been by a field goal or less. Week 10 is the first time they have one as large as +7.5.
Things aren’t always easy for defending champs. Injuries aside, the reality is that when everyone sets a target on your back, covering the spread every week is easier said than done. Although the Alouettes have covered twice in a row it’s only improved their tally to 5-3 ATS. They have won twice this season without covering (Week 2 in Edmonton and Week 5 at home to Calgary).
Hamilton Tiger-Cats
The 2024 Tiger-Cats have some undeniable strengths. The problem is that their weaknesses are glaring and take the entire operation down, hence the 2-6 record thus far.
A home game against a third-string QB, especially following back-to-back wins, should be an opportunity to increase momentum. It started well, after all, with Kenneth George Jr. picking off Davis Alexander in the first quarter for a 7-0 lead. Defence had been a problem all season for Hamilton so this was promising. Unfortunately, the game was downhill from that point onward. They coughed up TD passes and runs to Alexander and Caleb Evans, another backup who Alexander replaced in Week 8. Bo Levi Mitchell’s endzone toss to Tim White for a score in the fourth quarter made it a 27-16 and was mostly a consolation score. Even then, Montreal rumbled for another major shortly thereafter.
It was a rude dose of reality for Hamilton. If they want to turn their season around, they need to win consistently. Doing so in Montreal won’t be easy, but this is the situation the club must reckon with.
Montreal Alouettes
So long as starting quarterback Cody Fajardo’s status remains in doubt (he won’t play this week), the Alouettes will need defensive efforts like the one they put in versus Hamilton – their performance a week prior against Saskatchewan was excellent too.
Temporary starter Davis did more than enough to help his team win the game. Better still, he rebounded nicely from a first-quarter pick six that could have melted away pre-game confidence. He finished 19-for-27 with 262 yards and a stellar TD throw to Charleston Rambo.
But as was so often the case in 2023, especially against these Tiger-Cats, the defence took what it wanted when it wanted. DB Najee Murray was a terror with 10 tackles, and both DBs Bryce Cosby and Kabion Ento intercepted Mitchell. There is something about Hamilton’s offensive scheme that Montreal love to blow up. If the Alouettes perform like this for the second week in a row, then there is no doubt they’ll be in the Tiger-Cats’ heads.