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Edgar Chaput
RedBlacks vs. Argonauts Prediction: CFL Week 20 Point Spread, Odds
Playoff spots remain up for grabs as the CFL’s regular season winds down with only two weeks of play remaining. The West Division doesn’t even have a clear winner yet. Over in the East, Montreal has already taken the crown, but it remains unclear who between the Ottawa RedBlacks and Toronto Argonauts will host the semi-final match. An Argos win on Saturday would settle the matter. A RedBlacks victory would push the tension to the final week.
Our CFL odds believe Toronto will defend its home turf, as they’re placed at -4.5
CFL Odds and Betting
Things usually go Toronto’s way when they play Ottawa. When the RedBlacks defeated the Argos 41-27 just after Labour Day, it was the first time in six tries that Toronto hadn’t won. Going back to 2019, the Argonauts are an impressive 8-2 versus their provincial rivals. What’s more, when the Argonauts win at home against the RedBlacks, they win big, featuring margins of 30, 19, 13, and 13 since 2019.
Bob Dyce’s group is an even 8-8 versus the spread this season. Unfortunately for them, the lustre is falling off at the worst possible time. The club has lost four in a row and five times in the past five matches. All those straight-up defeats translated to losses against the spread too. They haven’t scored more than 20 points in a month, netting 21 in a defeat to Hamilton on September 14.
With only two games left on their schedule, it remains difficult to know what should be made of the 2024 Argonauts. They’ve never won more than twice in a row, nor have they lost more than twice consecutively, with plenty of trading between single wins and defeats in between. Still, the 7-9 ATS tally is inferior to the 9-7 outright one. They have at least covered the last two games. Arguably the more interesting stat is the over-under, with the over sporting a 10-6 record so far.
Ottawa RedBlacks
The traditional Thanksgiving Monday match in Montreal was an opportunity to keep pace with the Argonauts, who had won on Friday. It was a rainy, cold day in which Ottawa’s offence was drowned out in a 19-12 loss.
Jeremiah Masoli got the start for the RedBlacks. He looked a lot like he has since getting more starts in September. Capable on some plays, inadequate on others. This was his fourth defeat in a row, finishing 19-for-34, 216 yards and a pick. The RedBlacks are thin at the running back position these days (Jamal Morrow and DeVonte Dedmon were limited at practice this week), which partially explains the average 82-yard day.
The biggest issue was that Ottawa could never finish drives. Lewis Ward nailed four field goals, but when going against the defending champs in their house three-point drives won’t cut it.
It should be noted that WR Justin Hardy is dealing with an ankle issue and was also limited at practice this week.
Toronto Argonauts
It’s ironic that the RedBlacks and Alouettes played a low-scoring chess match to close Week 19’s action since the Argonauts and Blue Bombers did the same to get the ball rolling on Friday night.
This one went Toronto’s way, however, courtesy of a 14-11 victory. The early stages of the opening quarter were misleading, as Toronto whisked its way to the end zone less than five minutes into the contest when Chad Kelly found David Ungerer III for a 13-yard score. Lo and behold that would be the only touchdown until Winnipeg cut into the visitors’ lead in the fourth quarter. The result might have differed had the Bombers not missed two field goals.
WR Makai Polk had another solid outing, catching four passes for 82 yards. He’s proving to be a very reliable receiver on the Argos roster and even has more total yards than teammate Damone Coxie (798 to 747).
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