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Edgar Chaput
RedBlacks vs. Alouettes Prediction: CFL Week 18 Point Spread, Odds
Ottawa will have two things on its mind on Monday afternoon. First, exact some revenge for the 32-15 defeat they suffered against Montreal at home last week. Second, keep what playoff hopes they have left alive, although it’s not looking good anymore. The Alouettes aim to secure a home game in the East semi-final when the postseason commences.
The CFL odds view the Als as a -6.5 favourite for this Thanksgiving bout.
CFL Odds and Betting
Come to think of it, other than vengeance and playoff hopes, there is a third objective the RedBlacks will strive for, that being not getting swept by Montreal this season. All three contests so far have gone to the Alouettes and Week 18 is the final time they meet. The Als have a run of four wins over the RedBlacks dating back to last season.
That this game is in Montreal adds to the intrigue. Ottawa has a terrible 1-6 away record to show for their efforts. By the same token, the Alouettes have been suspect at Percival Molson Stadium, only going 3-4 to date in 2023.
The knack the RedBlacks have for making games exciting, most of them anyway, has led to an okay 6-9 tally against the spread despite that their outright record is only 4-11. That said, they’ve failed to cover three of their most recent five spreads.
Montreal’s 8-7 record in the standings is mirrored by its ATS record. Although a couple of contests have reversed results (an outright victory but a spread loss, for instance) usually the outcome of the game translates directly to what happens against the spread with this team. Of note, one of the two times the results were opposite came against Ottawa earlier this year.
Ottawa RedBlacks
It’s looking less and less likely that the RedBlacks will make much of their season. They can hold their heads high for making a lot of teams sweat it out even though the end result didn’t go their way. Last week was no such occasion, however.
With everything still to play for, Ottawa came out limp, playing remarkably sloppy football. Five turnovers will sink any team, even one that outgains the opposition 373 to 277, which is what the hosts accomplished. Granted, one of the fumbles was a bizarre fluke on a punt return in which a tumbling Alouette inadvertently kicked the ball out of the returning RedBlack’s hands, but five is way too much. Speaking of strange events, Ottawa fell victim to a rarely-seen play in the CFL: an onside punt for a first down by the Als.
Not for the first time this season, Dustin Crum started getting hot late, but trailing 22-0 in the fourth, it was too little, too late. WR Bralen Addison did the most damage with seven receptions for 94 yards.
Montreal Alouettes
On the flip side of the field, Week 17 was a great day for Montreal. A road win in which the offence wasn’t required to do too much (it didn’t) thanks to a suffocating defence and good special teams. Furthermore, the 32-15 final granted the Alouettes passage to the postseason, although whether they get a home game or not is still undetermined.
Cody Fajardo’s day was largely forgettable (15-for-20, 178 yards), save for a pretty strike to Tyson Philpot in the end zone. It was one of those days when even though the opposition racked up decent yardage, the Alouettes defence made the stops and produced the turnovers it needed to avoid ultimate damage. Reggie Stubblefield intercepted Dustin Crum in the end zone in the first quarter and Marc-Antoine Dequoy stole a pass along the goal line for a pick six in the third period. In the fourth, Shawn Lemon took a fumble back 31 yards to the house. When those things happen, the offence doesn’t need to go ballistic, just get the job done.